Intellectual Predictions NHL 12/31

Well a rough night yesterday as the computer only went 2-3 lets bounce back with a strong New Years Eve card. I’m only going to play Colorado due to them being underdogs to start but the line will likely move to even money or even Colorado as a slight favorite. Vancouver is a solid play if you want a decent favorite as they are playing some really good hockey. New Jersey at home as an underdog against the Penguins wouldn’t be a bad bet either. Good luck stay safe this New Years.

Plays
Colorado +106 @ Anaheim -115

Non plays
Edmonton +112 @ Ny Islanders -121
Pittsburgh -120 @ New Jersey +111
Carolina +134 @ Tampa Bay -145
Phoenix +118 @ Minnesota -128
Montreal +120 @ Florida -130
St. Louis +149 @ Detroit -162
Ottawa +129 @ Buffalo -140
Washington -132 @ Columbus +122
Toronto +115 @ Winnipeg -125
Boston -163 @ Dallas +150
Vancouver -130 @ Los Angeles +120

A deeper look at some stats I’ll be using

For the people who don’t know me I’m a stats oriented person. So their are some stats that I feel are pretty good indicators of how a certain player is actually doing. I’m going to try to stick to ones that have some real describing power of how a player has done and how that may translate to the major league level. For those of you who are reading my articles and hate statistics don’t worry I’m not going to turn my reports into all advanced statistic talk. So I’ll start with the hitters saber metrics…

wBOA is basically a weighted batting average as a home run is obviously worth more than a single. All the typical stats (obp,slug,avg) seem to have more flaws. A typical league average is usually around .330 although it does fluctuate from year to year.
75 percentile usually around .365
90 percentile around .390

Babip I’ve made mention previously to this statistic before on a pitcher (Chad James) but also can be used to see how lucky hitters are. For those who don’t know Babip is a stat used to calculate a players batting average on balls put in play league average around .290-.300. This is best used comparing a players prior years although most players if really high tend to regress back to the mean although some players just have higher babips Ichiro for example is sporting somewhere in the .350’s at last glance.
75 percentile .330
90 percentile .340

Babip (for pitchers)
Mlb average 300
75 percentile 280
90 percentile 270

ISO will show us a given players isolated power its just slug-ba which removes the singles giving us an idea of the players power.
Average .145
75 percentile .195
90 percentile .230

Spd takes into fapctor a player’s Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage to give us a good idea not only how fast a certain player is but how effective is in running the base paths. This is a 1-10 scale 1 being the worst
Average 5
90 percentile 7
Carl Crawford lead mlb with a spd ranking of 8.5

K and bb %’s are pretty straight forward how often is a player striking out and getting free passes.
K% average 20.5%
75 percentile 14%
90 percentile 11%

Bb% average 8.5%
75 percentile 11%
90 percentile 13%

Now for a short breather before get to the few pitcher exclusive stats. Keep in mind all these stats are just tools to help form a overall opinion of the players abilities their isn’t 1 stat that’s going to be the tell all and almost always exceptions to the rule. Okay now let’s dive in.

Fip or Fielding independent pitching basically how good is the pitcher at doing his job regardless of how the fielders handle theirs. This will likely become one of my favorites for pitchers.

Mlb average 4.05
75 percentile 3.65
90 percentile 3.10

The descriptions and formulas taken from fan graphs a site which has a handful of other great sabermetrics but not very as many for the minor leaguers.

Where they will be starting

For the people in my fantasy leagues you’ve gotten the pleasure of reading a few extra articles than the ones posted here. I hope I can retrieve those at some point but that’s not looking likely. Thought I’d do a short post on where the 3 prospects I’ve covered will start which then we can predict where they might end up and the big question when will we see them in the majors.

Julio Teheran the right handed flame thrower is apparently going to be rushed a bit he looks likely to open the year in triple a Gwinnett. Then if he can stay healthy be inserted into the Braves bull pen and possibly make some spot starts if any follow pitchers get injured.

Mike Trout the Angels uber talented is most likely going to send most or his entire 2011 season in AA Arkansas Travelers maybe a late call up to Salt Lake but I don’t see him making it to the big league club.

Last but not least is Zack Cox as I said in the most recent report Zack is going to start with the Palm Beach Cardinals. Although he Cardinals are sounding like they are going to take it slow with Cox this fast raiser will likely finish in double a or maybe even force the issue and end up playing for the Redbirds by the end of 2011.

Well that covers the 3 guys I’ve written on before the season opens. Stayed tuned for everything prospect related as we talk about tomorrows stars today.

Welcome

Thanks for visiting my blog here I’ll be having a biweekly report on different prospects, in season updates on how guys I’ve covered are doing. Pretty much anything baseball prospect related I’ll try and cover.

Just to go over the criteria for the players I’ll consider they must have a minor league ab/ip so newly signed minor leaguers won’t be eligible until they appeared in a game. Also once players have appeared in a big league game they are no longer eligible. I may still have in season updates when they struggle or do real well.

So sit back and enjoy.