Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck
The Colts are currently winning the suck for Luck sweepstakes both in real life and according to my power rankings. Luck despite getting some criticism lately in my mind is the best quarterback to enter the draft since current Colt Peyton Manning with the new rookie wage system I don’t see holding onto Luck and Manning as a problem financially question some might have is doing so would limit the chance of giving Manning help now to make a championship push.

St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil
The Rams blew up their coaching staff but still have a very talented signal caller despite taking a step back in 2011. One of the problems is Bradford has little help and now been through 2 offensive coordinators in as many years. For his and the Rams sake some continuity will go along way as will having a pro bowl type talent at left tackle in Matt Kalil.

Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claibourne
It’s not that I think Claibourne is the 3rd best player in the draft though you could make the argument that he isn’t far away its just he fits what the Vikings need more than any other top player. Don’t be surprised if someone tries to trade up here and get the talented Robert Griffin.

Cleveland Browns: Robbert Griffin III
Now with Griffin entering the draft he I will throw him in here. This pick makes plenty of sense for a team that needs to find a replacement for Colt McCoy and has another 1st round pick so it can continue to build its team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Blackmon
This year was a disappoint one for a team that had thoughts of playoffs before the season began. Josh Freeman has enough talent to put the quarterback debate aside if no coaching changes and perhaps even if there is one. Blackmon would give him a good target.

Washington Redskins: Dre Kirkpattrick
Washington is one of the teams that are hurt by Barkley and Jones returning to their respective colleges. Kirkpattrick would help boost the Redskins defensive backfield.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Kendall Wright
Jacksonville simply needs some weapons if last years first round selection Blane Gabbert is going to make it. Another option could be Martin to help protect him.

Carolina Panthers: Quentin Couples
Adding another pass rusher in Carolina could go a long way in helping them build their defense up for the future with the offense not having to many huge needs the defense should be targeted first unless a major talent falls.

Miami Dolphins: Jonathan Martin
I’ve read some people who think Martin is the best tackle in the draft while I disagree with the statement he sure isn’t no chump and to me is the 2nd best so throw him on the right side opposite Jake Long and you have a good replacement if injury occurs and if not you have good tackles for Matt Moore or whoever is throwing the rock in Miami.

Buffalo Bills: Reily Reiff
The Bills had a revolving door on the offensive line this season and thankfully for them Ryan Fitzpattrick is very athletic or their sacks given up would have been much higher. Buffalo could opt for a defensive player or wide receiver as well.

Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro
Kansas City is in a pretty good spot considering the talent they have coming back from injury in 2012. DeCastro isn’t exactly a huge need but getting him to mold into the future guard can’t hurt can it? The Chiefs will likely attempt to trade down from this position if not they will take the highest player on their board I think that player will be David DeCastro.

Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Tannehill
Seattle is actually in a pretty good spot if they’d like to move up and try to get Robbert Griffen they aren’t to far away or they could sit still take Tannehill or their highest rated player. A front 7 player would be my next choice

Arizona Cardinals: Micheal Floyd
Floyd is a pretty big mover but if you’ve read my notes you know I believe in his talents it’s the red flags that I think may cost him some positioning. Arizona obviously could use an option opposite all pro Larry Fitzgerald. Offensive line and linebacker are the other two top and perhaps even more pressing needs but Floyd’s talents will be too much to pass on.

Dallas Cowboys: Devon Still
Last year it was brought up that the Cowboys really liked Jj Watt but needed the offensive line help that Tyron Smith was brought in. Well even though I like Watt I think they made the right move for them as Smith graded out very well playing right tackle in fact might be moved to left tackle next year. This year they have a chance to get Still who isn’t on Watt’s level in my mind but isn’t very far off.

Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly
Another team in very good shape entering next year will be the Eagles they obviously have plenty of talent linebacker and offensive line are the main concerns with wide receiver being the next with the likely departure of DeShan Jackson. Kuechly is the top linebacker in my mind but who knows what Andy Reid will do.

New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw
Isn’t this pick supposed to be at least twice as high like in the late 20’s to 30’s? Well it’s not a typo Rex Ryan wrote checks he can’t cash again this year. Upshaw is a great fit for the 3-4 scheme as he played in it at Alabama under Nick Saban.

Cincinnati Bengals from Oakland: Trent Richardson
The Bengals in this scenario would be able to add Richardson who unlike most I don’t think he’s going in the top 5-10. That’s no disrespect to him he is one of the better if not best backs to come into the league since Adrian Peterson. The Bengals may lose Cedric Benson which wouldn’t be a huge loss as last season he averaged only 3.9 yards per carry.

San Diego Chargers: Nick Perry
Perry is ranked 14th on Wes Buntings big board. So this pick is about right even a bit of value and fills a need. The Chargers have elite talent in most areas, linebacker however is an area where they could use an upgrade.

Chicago Bears: Melvin Ingram
Melvin is a very versatile defensive player out of the toughest division in the NCAA the SEC. It’s a bit of a different position putting Ingram to the Bears but they could use some youth at the defensive linemen position as Israel Idonije is a 31 year old free agent and Julius Peppers turns 32 in a couple of weeks.

Tennessee Titans: Cordy Glenn
Glenn who is a monster of a man might be considered a reach at this spot but considering he is versatile I wouldn’t be shocked if someone falls in love with his size/ and ability to move him around. The Titans could use some help out front to open up holes for Chris Johnson.

Cincinnati Bengals: Alfonzo Dennard
Dennard possibly would have been the pick at 17 but when Richardson fell it was to big of a talent to pass on. Lucky for the Bengals Alfonzo falls to Cincinnati 4 picks later.

Cleveland Browns from Atlanta: Alshon Jeffery
The Browns desperately need a play maker at wide receiver no matter if the first pick I gave them is Griffin or not they need to address the wideout position someone and early in the draft. Wright has been rumoured to possibly be ranked high than some of the other WR’s in this years draft class I like him here to par with his teammate from Baylor.

Detroit Lions: Mike Adams
The Lions have shocked me and the draft experts for years not selecting an offensive linemen in the first round. Now they have a strong core and outside of corner not a ton of needs beside the o-line.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Vontaze Burfict
Going to stick with Burfict to the Steelers though in the playoffs it was obvious the Steelers need an upgrade at corner as they made Tim Tebow look like lesser version of Tom Brady. And of course an offesensive linemen is always going to be a popular choice. Burfict’s talent though makes this pick of a pretty good value.

Denver Broncos: Dwayne Allen
The NFL has become a league where the tight end is a huge weapon and Allen is one of the 3 tight ends I really like in this draft. Allen will become Tim Tebow’s new best friend.

Houston Texans: Dontari Poe
Houston’s 2 biggest needs are corner and nose tackle. Poe can step in and be the next good big nose tackle in the NFL. Poe looks to be the top tackle in the draft now.

New England Patriots from New Orleans: Janoris Jenkins
I know what some readers will say 1 this is a bit late for Jenkins and 2 he isn’t the typical Patriot type selection. But my argument against that will be will his off the field issues make him drop in the draft some? And if they do to this extent the Patriots would be crazy to not take a look when they have plenty of a need at corner opposite McCourty.

Green Bay Packers: Jared Crick
A 3-4 de who is currently injured but with plenty of tape scouts will be able to evlaute if if he will fit their needs. The Pack don’t really have any needs but some defensive help couldn’t hurt could it?

Baltimore Ravens: Mark Baron
If I’m going off the Wes Bunting big board Baron is the 2nd best player remaining behind Peter Konz who I just couldn’t find a good spot for in this mock so far. Baron would be able to learn for a few years behind one of the best safeties in the league and then be able to step into one of the better defensive units once he retires or starts to slow down.

San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Gilmore
Gilmore would upgrade one of the positions San Fran could use.

New York Giants: Peter Konz
The Giants could use Konz who somehow I have falling in the draft and this isn’t because of him just couldn’t find a need like I said in the Baltimore write up Konz has middle of the first round talent. Peter is the top remaining talent left and fits a need for New York.

New England Patriots: Fletcher Cox
The Patriots don’t have to many needs and Cox could help provide some versatility with their fronts being a strong 3-4 DE and move inside if they wanted to shift a 4-3 pairing him with Vince Wilfork in that front would make it very tough to run against.

Advertisements

Great start for NBA starting 4 of 5 on plays.

Los Angeles Clippers -5.5 @ Cleveland

Intro: The Clippers head to Cleveland on a roll ATS covering 5 of their last 7 and 6 out of 7 straight up. Cleveland lost last night in Miami now head home for a long home stretch.

System: Cleveland is predicted to cover with the Clippers still winning.

Prediction: The Clippers an edge in most statistical areas on that Cleveland does though is their bench’s scoring ability if Cleveland is able to cover or even win straight up the Cavs bench must come through in a big way as their starters won’t be able to match Los Angeles’s on most nights. At minus 5.5 I’m going to say the Clippers will cover but this is not a play either way.

Miami -3 @ Orlando

Intro: The big 3 head to Orlando to take on Dwight Howard and the Magic. The Heat are winners of their last 3  but have only covered 3 times in the last 10 games.

System: Miami has the value according to the NN as they are predicted to win by about 17. This of course is probably slightly higher but now is the time to lock in Miami as only 3 point favorites before it moves to 3.5-4 or possibly worse.

Prediction: This is going to be a 1 unit play on the Heat.

San Antonio @ Philadelphia -3

Intro: The Spurs trout into Philly riding a very hot streak both ATS and straight up winners of 5 in a row straight up and 6 in a row against the number the Spurs take on a 76ers team who just took down Kobe Bryant’s Lakers in a game I had a play on, on Monday. This should be a great matchup with two teams who statistically match up very well against each other.

System: San Antonio for the cover 76ers for the win with a predicted win margin of only 0.404.

Prediction: I think Philly will end the Spurs hot streak in what should be a close game I’d say they cover the 3 point spread but doubt it will be by much for this reason this is not a play.

New York @ Washington -1

Intro: I’m really confused by this one Washington has the second to worse record in Basketball only behind the Bobcats who can’t win a game. While new York isn’t exactly anything special they are 10-15 and winners of their last two.

System: The edge here goes to New York who is predicted to win by 5.

Prediction: The extra point in value isn’t all that helpful but hey they want to spot me a point I’ll take it for a unit.

Milwaukee -1.5 @ Toronto

Intro: Milwaukee is only 3-10 on the road and losers of their last 3 games yet favored to beat the Raptors by a point and a half. Toronto isn’t very impressive either so I guess it makes sense as the Raptors have lost 2 and a row and 6 of their last 10.

System: Toronto by 3 says the spreadsheet.

Prediction: Toronto but a no play not enough of an edge with the line currently at 1.5.

Indiana @ Atlanta -3.5

Intro: This is the 2nd really good game of the night which unlike the hockey games I actually like tonight’s NBA card these teams match up fairly well against each other and both are currently in second place in their respective divisions. The Hawks have dropped 3 in a row at home and face Indiana before starting a much tougher stretch in which they will see the likes of Miami, the Lakers, Portland and Chicago. The Hawks can’t afford to look past the Pacers who have been very good on the road covering in 4 of their last 5 on the road.

System: And the system says Indiana wins which frankly I see no reason why given that Atlanta holds the edge in almost every statistic the system uses expect pace which isn’t very far apart.

Prediction: I’m going to keep an eye on this one if it can go up a full point to 4.5 I’m going to jump on it for Indiana for a unit getting the number beyond four is to a point I’d see enough value to play on the Pacers.

Detroit @ New Jersey -4

Intro: Here’s a game that I don’t really care for as both teams are in the bottom half but obviously they need to have some of them with having a good size card the Nets have lost 3 in a row while the Pistons might be starting to turn it around and have won 2 in a row.

System: New Jersey by almost 12 full points says the NN.

Prediction: Usually I jump on value like this but given the streaks I’m going to hold off.

Chicago @ New Orleans

Intro: It sounds as if the MVP of the league Derek Rose will play tonight with no line currently available I’m not sure who has the value. However given how bad the Hornets are and good the Bulls are I’m expecting a spread about -11. The Bulls head to New Orleans winners of the last 3 games while the Hornets have dropped each of the last 6.

System: No matter the spread the NN predicts the Bulls to pull off the cover as they are predicted to win by 56 or so by the system.

Prediction: Again no spread my assumption is this wont be a play though.

Minnesota @ Memphis -7.5

Intro: Minnesota will be without Kevin Love as he sits due to his suspension this will be the last game he will miss for Saturday’s incident with Luis Scola. The Timberwolves have dropped 3 of the last 4 against the number while Memphis has lost 2 in a row against the spread which streak is going to end tonight?

System: Memphis is the team the Neural Net says will end its losing ways against the spread as they are predicted to win by 20.

Prediction: I don’t like playing games where I’m laying more than 5 points so this is an obvious no play I even think pretty good value on Minnesota who despite missing Love maybe able to hang in against a suddenly struggling Griz who have lost 7 of their last 9. So I’m going to play the T-Wolves for unit.

Dallas @ Denver

Intro: Speaking of a game where what streak will end both of the teams in this matchup have lost their 3 games.

System: Denver by 2.5 says the system.

Prediction: No line available I’d expect the spread to be somewhere close to the predicted score so likely wont have much value keep an eye on it and jump if you see value though. I’ll tweet out an update if I see some when I wake up you can follow me on twitter the username is futurestarz23.

Houston @ Portland -7.5

Intro: Portland is set to take on Houston who have Identical records as each other and even are the same way strong home teams and weak road teams. What this suggests is that Houston should have no chance in winning this game, but how about against the spread? Houston is 5 of their last 7 ATS on the road but outside of the Spurs twice I can’t say the level of competition was equal to that of Portland. The Trail Blazers have covered 4 of the last 5 at home and the only loss was a game they lost against the Thunder Monday.

System: Houston for the cover Portland for the win. The benches are pretty equal the effective shooting percentage favors the Rockets though not by a large amount and they net ratings are both positive though Portland holds the edge as they have a +6.5 compared to just +2 for Houston.

Prediction: Unless this climbs to +8 I’m going to stay off it just may happened as currently according to the SBR odds tool approximately 56% of people are taking Portland minus the points.

Utah @ Indiana -9

Intro: Indiana has had a nice turn around this season despite making the playoffs last season they did so as the only sub .500 team.

System: The Neural Network gives a 3 point edge to Indiana.

Prediction: After losing by 11 last night I’m going to give another unit to Utah.

Cleveland @ Miami -13.5

Intro: Well these two had the big matchups last year. When James left darted out Cleveland he left them with next to nothing luckily for them they got Kyrie Irving who as a rookie has brought some hope back he currently leads the team in points, assists and field goal percentage. Well Cleveland has some hope for the future they are still a long ways away on the other hand you have Miami who currently has the second best win percentage in the East only bested by Chicago.

System: Miami is given a 23 point edge but given the -13.5 spread this is wont be a play.

Prediction: I expect Miami to win and wouldn’t be shocked if they covered.

Charlotte @ Boston -14

Intro: Boston has really turned it around winning 4 in a row they are now on the right side of .500. Charlotte is in the bottom of the league and has lost 11 games in a row. On the road though they are a little better against the number 5-9.

System: Another huge predictive margin this game huge 66 points.

Prediction: Looks like I’m very far away I hope next week when I rerun the network that this will get solved. Just like the Miami game straight up I expect Boston to win but this one I expect Charlotte to cover.

Sacramento @ Minnesota -6.5

Intro: Minnesota right now in the middle of the pack with a 12-12 record and are winners of their last two games. The host the Kings who are on a 3 game winning streak behind their three talented youngsters DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evens and Jimmer Fredette. While most of the work is on the first two who currently lead the team in almost every statistical category Jimmer gives the Kings an outside presence that cannot be ignored and makes his shots from the FT line at a solid clip 88%.

System: Minnesota with a deeper bench and a more effective shooting percentage and a positive team rating (1.8 opposed to -11) have a large predicted margin.

Prediction: The extra half a point tops my limit for the game. I’d still expect Minnesota to cover but is little more than I want to lay.

Phoenix @ Milwaukee -7.5

Intro: Phoenix takes a two game winning streak to Milwaukee after beating Atlanta by 9 last night the Suns are 7.5 underdogs tonight. They do so being pretty cold ats only covering 3 of their last 9. The Bucks led by their leading scoring point guard Brandon Jennings come into tonight’s action on a two game losing and cover streak.

System: Milwaukee has only a point and a half edge according to the system. Of course this is 6 points of predicted value so check out the prediction to see what I think in terms of plays.

Prediction: I’m going to give this game a two unit play. Phoenix has been playing better as of late has a deeper bench, and though its close a more effective shooting percentage.

Oklahoma City -2 @ Golden State

Intro: The Thunder went into Portland last night and won and are now 10-4 on the road straight up and 8-6 against the spread when they travel away from Oklahoma City. The Warriors are aren’t even .500 at home straight up or against the spread and yet Okc is only laying two points?

System: Interestingly the system grades this out as about right and even a slight edge against the number to Golden State as the Thunder only have a predicted edge of under half a point.

Prediction: I think we see the Thunder win and cover the 2 point spread but this isn’t a play.

The first NBA intellectual predictions I’ve only done a neural net for the NBA as I continue to work on those.

Toronto @ Washington -4

Intro: What a match up this is. Haha okay not really its one of the two matchups in which both teams have less than 10 wins. The Wizards have just 4 wins while the Raptors have double that which isn’t exactly that hard to do. Interestingly 5 of the Raptors 8 wins have come on the road, while of the Washington’s 4 have been at home.

System: The neural network gives Washington a very slight edge of only 0.163 which sounds about right given that they both are bad and Washington is home. What this tells me is if I’m receiving 4 points with barely any edge at all towards Washington I’m getting some decent value.

Prediction: A 2 unit play on Toronto +4. Toronto holds an edge in 3 of the stats that so far have been the most predictive in terms of winning since I’ve started tracking them. Depending on what happens with the moneyline I may try to add a unit play to that as well but for the most part will be sticking with point spreads for NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers -1 @ Orlando

Intro: This is a pretty good matchup and this time I’m not kidding. The Magic are pretty solid at home combining for 8 wins compared to the Clippers who have four wins on the road which actually isn’t that bad considering they have only played 8. Orlando is 5-5 in their last 10 and currently riding a 3 game winning streak. The Clippers have “shocked” the NBA and sit on top of the Pacific West due to playing 3 fewer games than the in state rival Lakers. The Clippers are 7-3 in the last 10.

System: Los Angeles gets the edge by just under 4 points. This is simply because statistically they hold the edge in three stats including pace, effective shooting percentage and have faced a tougher level of competition thus far. The one area which Orlando holds an edge is points from their bench.

Prediction: I agree with the spread but my gut tells me Orlando finds a way to pull it off this isn’t a play so take it for what its worth.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia -4

Intro: Another very good game involving a LA team coming east. This 76ers team I’m more shocked with the turn around than I’m the Clippers given that they are younger almost 2.5 years younger than the Clippers. I don’t want to make it sound like Philly is a bad team they are just well built as their 42 almost 43 points off the bench shows. The Lakers have .500 in their last 10 and only won 3 games on the road. The 76ers have better going 12-3 at home and 7-3 in their last 10.

System: The 76ers are extremely highly favored by the system having the largest predicted margin in tonight’s games at just over 51 points. I don’t expect that big of a difference.

Prediction: The system’s prediction is to high but with some blow outs in the test data it hasn’t had time to offset each week I’ll rerun the net to update it so hopefully will offset these. But this is worth a unit bet.

Phoenix @ Atlanta -7.5

Intro: When I saw this spread I was a little surprised that this was the second highest spread of the night. But then once I took a look at statistics and power rankings around the web and I could understand I.

System: The system gives a pretty large 27 point edge to Atlanta.

Prediction: I think Phoenix covers this game. Atlanta to win by 8 I’m just not sure that I’d predict by that much.

Chicago -9 @ New Jersey

Intro: Chicago the top team in the NBA takes a visits to the Nets who are in the bottom 10 in the league. The Bulls are on a two game winning streak and actually have more wins on the road going 11-5 compared to 9-1 but that is obviously in large part because of the lack of home games. The Nets have a bunch of injuries two key injuries to Lopez and exciting youngster MarShon Brooks. Brook’s injury is more recent but Lopez hasn’t played a game yet this season and that would make a good size difference in this team.

System: How many people are reading this section expecting a model to predict the Nets to cover this? Well if you are than well sorry of course Chicago is favored by about 39, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Bulls won by that much the good news for Chicago backs is they only have to win by 9.

Prediction: This spread is far and everything but a 9 point spread will get a no play every time in my book. I agree Chicago should cover this though.

Utah @ New York -4

Intro: I really don’t understand this spread I guess it’s about what a home team should get when teams are fairly even. Utah has a better record than New York but has really struggled on the road. However New York has only won 3 games in their last 10.

System: The Knicks are a slight favorite but less than the spread.

Prediction: I expect Utah to cover this spread which is what the system suggests. Utah actually has the advantage in most of the statistics I use so I wouldn’t be shocked if they win the game outright. This will be a single unit play.

San Antonio @ Memphis -1.5

Intro: This spread seems perfect to me these teams are fairly even and Memphis is home where they are 7-3. The Spurs are one of the better teams in the league have a 3.5 game lead on the Grizzles. But that is mostly because the Spurs are an amazing 13-1 at home. San Antonio is on a 4 game winning streak while Memphis is on a 2 game losing streak.

System: The system gives a slight edge 3.2 to Memphis this seems about fair given they are home with their stats which match up fairly well with the Spurs but don’t hold an edge in any of them but Pace.

Prediction: Given the streaks I expect the Spurs to win and cover. This is a no play unless the line has some serious movement.

Sacramento @ New Orleans

Intro: Currently no line available in this game but I’d expect -1.5 for New Orleans. New Orleans has lost 5 games in a row, while the Kings have won 2 in a row.

System: New Orleans should win this game according to the system but the edge is very slight inside of 1/2 a point.

Prediction: I like the Kings here New Orleans has been struggling as of late and on the season. The Hornets have an edge in this game of two weak teams so my prediction is mostly based off from the recent struggles and I could see either team winning. Unless a difference from spread to my predicted margin this wont be a play.

Houston @ Denver -7

Intro: Both teams have won 6 games of their last 10. Denver has a better record on the season.

System: The system suggests this game is pretty efficient it has a predicted margin of 6.5.

Prediction: Obviously a no play with the system and Vegas are so close, but I’m going to guess Denver covers they just have a high scoring offense which just their bench scores the 2nd highest in the league with 43.4 points per a game.

Oklahoma City -2 @ Portland

Intro: This in my mind is the best game on the card tonight Oklahoma City has the best record in the West behind Kevin Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook. Portland will look to continue their strong play at home were they are 11-1.

System: This game is very off by the system suggesting almost a 17 point win by the Trail Blazers this game should help offset the numbers some. But to put it into perspective Portland does have a better net rating (ORtg-DRtg), a slightly better pace and a better scoring bench then when you factor in those and being home it’s not shocking that it predicts a win.

Prediction: I think the Thunder cover but this is a no play I expect this might actually move more and finish at about -2.5 to -3. If only moves to -2.5 my opinion does not change enough at -3 I’d play on Portland for a unit.

Hopefully any readers enjoy and we can win some of these games.

Hope everyone had a great little break from hockey I don’t get into the all star games for any sport as they all just seem like 3 on 3 type with basically no physical contact. I watched about 15 minutes of the pro bowl and was disgusted so didn’t bother watching anymore. Got a couple plays for tonight I’m a little iffy on the Calgary play where Detroit is obviously the better team both on the season and previous ten. Despite being iffy I’m going to stick to what the computer says. I’m looking to make one last change this current system used the math models output for points allowed to help offset for opponents strength and I’m begun using each stat individually will see how it’s looking by end of the week or so to see if it’s something that will an improvement. I’ve also started to lay the ground work on an NBA system I’m trying to get one for the major sports before deciding if want to go to a hosted site or not. But here’s tonight’s spreadsheet.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -190 0.53 2.393 Ottawa 174 1.74 -0.577 2.97 NP
New Jersey 104 1.04 -0.044 Ny Rangers -113 0.885 -0.027 -1.51 NP
Philadelphia -200 0.5 0.441 Winnipeg 183 1.83 -0.913 0.07 NP
Pittsburgh -163 0.61 0.343 Toronto 150 1.5 -0.549 -0.16 NP
Carolina -133 0.75 0.873 Ny Islanders 123 1.23 -0.921 1.14 3 2.26
Montreal -147 0.68 0.397 Buffalo 136 1.36 -1.09 0.27 1 0.68
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.349 Washington 121 1.21 0.368 -1.41 NP
Minnesota 117 1.17 0.373 Nashville -127 0.787 -0.17 0.62 NP
Calgary 134 1.34 0.549 Detroit -145 0.69 0.272 -1.33 2 2.68
Phoneix -131 0.76 0.64 Anaheim 121 1.21 -0.551 0.91 3 2.29
Edmonton 116 1.16 0.244 Colorado -126 0.794 -0.5 -0.18 NP
Vanvouver -135 0.74 1.031 Chicago 125 1.25 -0.425 1.62 3  2.22
San Jose -260 0.38 0.389 Columbus 236 2.36 -1.071 1.19 NP

Not going to go as in depth as yesterday on this part but the 2 unit plays for now will one’s that the Neural Network spits out an edge between .475 and .6249. The one unit plays will be from .375 to the .4749. I will attempt to stay out of the way and not mess with plays but as I’ve mentioned before any sort of math system is something that should only be used as a starting point. Today I have a game I’m iffy on so I’m going to not monitor that play. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins tonight’s game I would not bet on it on its current odds from Pinnacle at -125. On my system’s record page I will track this as a play as it fits the criteria so it fits the bill of a “play” I just personally don’t like the odds enough to take that risk if it lowers to my liking I will update it at that time. As you can see the Wash/Bos & Chi/Nas games are without a line I’m expecting at least one of those if not both to have lines which make both no plays.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
New Jersey -173 0.58 -0.214 Buffalo 159 0.578 -0.481 -0.37 NP
NY Islanders -119 0.84 -0.738 Toronto 110 1.1 -0.346 -1.27 NP
NY Rangers -220 0.45 0.243 Winnipeg 201 2.01 -1.32 0.74 NP
Washington 155 1.55 -0.606 Boston -168 0.595 1.489 -1.49 NP
Tampa Bay -170 0.59 -0.243 Columbus 156 1.56 -0.13 -1.05 NP
Florida 106 1.06 -0.09 Philadelphia -115 0.87 0.157 -0.17 NP
St. Louis -120 0.83 -0.071 Pittsburgh 111 1.11 -0.838 0.63 NP
Chicago -151 0.66 0.595 Nashville 139 1.39 -0.603 1.19 NP
Dallas -108 0.93 -0.213 Anahiem 100 1 -0.727 -0.05 NP
Colorado -150 0.67 0.222 Minnesota 138 1.38 -0.337 0.48 NP
Calgary 103 1.03 0.43 San Jose -111 0.901 0.211 -0.6 1 1.03
Phoneix -125 0.8 0.464 Ottawa 115 1.15 0.165 1.26 1 0.8
Vanvouver -290 0.34 0.902 Edmonton 262 2.62 -1.703 2.37 NP

No plays today game I’m leaning towards the most is Boston.

Plays

Non Plays

Nashville -138 @ Columbus +127
Minnesota +147 @ Toronto -160
Boston -138 @ New Jersey +127
Pittsburgh +133 @ Ny Rangers -144
Ny Islanders +191 @ Philadelphia -209
Edmonton +223 @ St. Louis -245
Buffalo +132 @ Winnipeg -143
Detroit -165 @ Phoenix +152
Ottawa +152 @ San Jose -165
Calgary +156 @ Los Angeles -170

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Nashville 3-2
Minnesota 3-2
Boston 3-2
Ny Rangers 2-2
Ny Islanders 3-3
St. Louis 2-2
Winnipeg 2-2
Phoenix 3-2
San Jose 3-3
Calgary 2-0

I’m going to go against a common thought and go against the hot team today I’m going to back Phoenix I’d really like this game if was getting closer to +130 but 119 is just enough for me to take the risk. Also going to take the Avalanche at home as slight favorites. If you check out my monitor I selected the away team on the wrong match up taking Florida but will have it of course adjusted appropriately tomorrow morning.

Plays

Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116

Non Plays

Washington -110 @ Montreal +102
Buffalo +190 @ Chicago -208
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116
Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Montreal 2-2
Chicago 2-2
Florida 2-2
Phoenix 2-2

No plays for you readers tonight after hitting another one last night got two small leans on Toronto despite playing the red hot Senators team they are on the tail end of a back to back only reason I’m staying off is I’m not about to bet against a team that is 8-1-1 in it’s last 10 especially if I’m the one laying the extra money. The other is Edmonton over Columbus both teams are bad and cold so I can completely understand the line and won’t bite on something less I feel very comfortable that it will win.

Plays

Non Plays

Minnesota +174 @ Philadelphia -190
Edmonton +104 @ Columbus -113
Carolina +183 @ Pittsburgh -200
Ottawa +104 @ Toronto -113
Ny Islanders +183 @ Washington -200
Winnipeg +156 @ New Jersey -170
Nashville +147 @ Ny Rangers -160
Boston -190 @ Tampa Bay +174
Detroit -160 @ Dallas +147
Los Angeles +165 @ Vancouver -180
Calgary +183 @ San Jose -200

Neaural Network

All scores are rounded

Minnesota 3-2
Columbus 3-1
Pittsburgh 2-2
Toronto 2-2
Washington 2-2
New Jersey 3-2
Ny Rangers 2-2
Boston 4-0
Dallas 4-4
Vancouver 3-3
San Jose 1-1

So I won the game yesterday now up to +547 and 15 for 26. Last nights football games were great espiscally the early game. I wanted to get the early game posted and will try and update no games stick out to me but still two without lines so we will see what things are once I wake up. Time to hit the sack and get up for some more sports tomorrow take care readers.

Plays

Non Plays

Pittsburgh -118 @ Tampa Bay +109
Carolina +206 @ Washington -225
Ny Rangers -125 @ Montreal +115
San Jose +117 @ Chicago -127
Los Angeles -123 @ Edmonton +114
Anaheim +197 @ Vancouver -215

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Pittsburgh 2-2
Washington 2-2
Montreal 3-2
San Jose 4-3
Los Angeles 4-2
Vancouver 4-2