Tag Archive: nhl lines


Because I’m sure people who randomly come to the blog aren’t sure what the spreadsheet means I’m going to go to have little breakdown on each.

Edmonton +151 @ Toronto -164

Intro: Edmonton comes into Toronto riding a 3 game winning streak. The teams have identical records in the last 10, both 5-4-1. Toronto comes in with the better record currently sitting in the 8th position in the Eastern conference at 27-19-6, while the Oilers are 13th in the West 21-26-5.

Systems: The basic math model shows a slight advantage to Toronto with the main reason being a better first period differential and slight edges in other statistics including Pp Kill, Shooting % and goals per a game where they hold almost .75 goals per game edge over the visiting team. The newest Neural Network is complete and gives the edge to the Oilers. Looking at everything the Network must take the last ten, a slightly better FO%, a better GAA and a stronger Power Play offense by Edmonton and see that of the training teams fit that criteria came out on top more often than not.

Prediction:Edmonton has been very bad on the road only collecting 6 wins so far this season. That is the main reason I’d predict that Toronto wins. At -164 though this is not a play.

Detroit -135 @ Phoenix +125

Intro: Detroit to no surprise will visit the Coyotes with the most points (72) in the NHL. Phoenix has been struggling as of late going 3-4-3 which of course is completely opposite of the visiting Redwings who have been hot all season, road or home it hasn’t much mattered. Detroit has a better record on the road 15-14-1 than Phoenix does at home 11-10-4.

Systems: The Neural Network gives just above a 1/2 point edge to the home team. Detroit is a very slightly favored by the Math Model.

Prediction: Not exactly a bold prediction here but the Redwings are the pick but again a no play unless the price drops to -125 or better over night which I see no reason why it would.

Calgary +115 @ Anaheim -125

Intro: Both teams have been pretty hot as of late 6-2-2 for the home Ducks and 6-3-1 for the visiting Flames. Seven points seperate the two teams with Calgary ahead. Anaheim is a fairly average team at home 13-13-2 and Calgary isn’t very good when traveling 10-14-2.

Systems: Calgary is a heavy favorite by the NN with almost a 5 goal predicted differential. This margin is in large part because of a 8 goal higher first period differential, a better Goals against average, and the slightest edge in Power play %. While the Ducks hold a very slight edge thanks to a better pentalty kill, shooting %, face off % and goals per a game.

Prediction: Given how large of an edge the NN gives Calgary and close the math model is I’m going to make a 1 unit play on Calgary.

The first NBA predictions will be released shortly.

Well that was a sad way to end the month going 1-4 for -6.78 units. But that doesn’t change anything for right now. I did see some of the smarter guys on twitter seemed to not play due to just coming back from the all star break being my first year handicapping hockey I’m not sure if that would have been the smarter or if just happened that bunch of losses together happened either way. On to tonight’s games. No plays today which is probably a good thing lets let things get back to normal. If there is a value bet though I like Washington + the money I could see them pulling off the “upset”.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Toronto 114 1.14 0.052 Pittsburgh -123 0.813 0.049 0.67 NP
Buffalo 126 1.26 -1.037 Ny Rangers -136 0.735 -0.351 -0.81 NP
Florida -145 0.69 0.083 Washington 134 1.34 0.148 -0.18 NP
Los Angeles -220 0.45 0.58 Columbus 201 2.01 -1.441 0.66 NP
Anahiem -158 0.63 -0.151 Dallas 146 1.46 -0.442 0.38 NP

Hope everyone had a great little break from hockey I don’t get into the all star games for any sport as they all just seem like 3 on 3 type with basically no physical contact. I watched about 15 minutes of the pro bowl and was disgusted so didn’t bother watching anymore. Got a couple plays for tonight I’m a little iffy on the Calgary play where Detroit is obviously the better team both on the season and previous ten. Despite being iffy I’m going to stick to what the computer says. I’m looking to make one last change this current system used the math models output for points allowed to help offset for opponents strength and I’m begun using each stat individually will see how it’s looking by end of the week or so to see if it’s something that will an improvement. I’ve also started to lay the ground work on an NBA system I’m trying to get one for the major sports before deciding if want to go to a hosted site or not. But here’s tonight’s spreadsheet.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -190 0.53 2.393 Ottawa 174 1.74 -0.577 2.97 NP
New Jersey 104 1.04 -0.044 Ny Rangers -113 0.885 -0.027 -1.51 NP
Philadelphia -200 0.5 0.441 Winnipeg 183 1.83 -0.913 0.07 NP
Pittsburgh -163 0.61 0.343 Toronto 150 1.5 -0.549 -0.16 NP
Carolina -133 0.75 0.873 Ny Islanders 123 1.23 -0.921 1.14 3 2.26
Montreal -147 0.68 0.397 Buffalo 136 1.36 -1.09 0.27 1 0.68
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.349 Washington 121 1.21 0.368 -1.41 NP
Minnesota 117 1.17 0.373 Nashville -127 0.787 -0.17 0.62 NP
Calgary 134 1.34 0.549 Detroit -145 0.69 0.272 -1.33 2 2.68
Phoneix -131 0.76 0.64 Anaheim 121 1.21 -0.551 0.91 3 2.29
Edmonton 116 1.16 0.244 Colorado -126 0.794 -0.5 -0.18 NP
Vanvouver -135 0.74 1.031 Chicago 125 1.25 -0.425 1.62 3  2.22
San Jose -260 0.38 0.389 Columbus 236 2.36 -1.071 1.19 NP

It’s kind of funny I was all worried about the Phoenix game it was the one which cashed. So after today I’ll have a few days off due to the all star break and I’m not going to release my pick for the Superbowl until Tuesday. But to give readers something to ponder on I’ve been thinking of hosting my own blog basically making it a regular .com site and where this blog has turned more into a handicapping site the futurestarz name isn’t professional sounding or fitting so as readers I’d like some opinions the name I’ve liked for a while is SportingIntellect. Let me know what you think of it or opinions of names that you think might be good. Here is tonight’s game breakdown. No surprise the basic math model favors the Redwings though it is pretty close I’m pretty shocked that the Neural Network favors the Canadian’s. Detroit is the hotter team winning 8 of their last ten while Montreal is 4-4-2. Just about every other stat shows Detroit should win this game. Being favored at a -156 clip though makes this a no play for me.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Montreal 144 1.55 0.083 Detroit -156 0.595 0.054 -1.17 NP

Not going to go as in depth as yesterday on this part but the 2 unit plays for now will one’s that the Neural Network spits out an edge between .475 and .6249. The one unit plays will be from .375 to the .4749. I will attempt to stay out of the way and not mess with plays but as I’ve mentioned before any sort of math system is something that should only be used as a starting point. Today I have a game I’m iffy on so I’m going to not monitor that play. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins tonight’s game I would not bet on it on its current odds from Pinnacle at -125. On my system’s record page I will track this as a play as it fits the criteria so it fits the bill of a “play” I just personally don’t like the odds enough to take that risk if it lowers to my liking I will update it at that time. As you can see the Wash/Bos & Chi/Nas games are without a line I’m expecting at least one of those if not both to have lines which make both no plays.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
New Jersey -173 0.58 -0.214 Buffalo 159 0.578 -0.481 -0.37 NP
NY Islanders -119 0.84 -0.738 Toronto 110 1.1 -0.346 -1.27 NP
NY Rangers -220 0.45 0.243 Winnipeg 201 2.01 -1.32 0.74 NP
Washington 155 1.55 -0.606 Boston -168 0.595 1.489 -1.49 NP
Tampa Bay -170 0.59 -0.243 Columbus 156 1.56 -0.13 -1.05 NP
Florida 106 1.06 -0.09 Philadelphia -115 0.87 0.157 -0.17 NP
St. Louis -120 0.83 -0.071 Pittsburgh 111 1.11 -0.838 0.63 NP
Chicago -151 0.66 0.595 Nashville 139 1.39 -0.603 1.19 NP
Dallas -108 0.93 -0.213 Anahiem 100 1 -0.727 -0.05 NP
Colorado -150 0.67 0.222 Minnesota 138 1.38 -0.337 0.48 NP
Calgary 103 1.03 0.43 San Jose -111 0.901 0.211 -0.6 1 1.03
Phoneix -125 0.8 0.464 Ottawa 115 1.15 0.165 1.26 1 0.8
Vanvouver -290 0.34 0.902 Edmonton 262 2.62 -1.703 2.37 NP

I had to work yesterday so wasn’t able to get the predictions out before the early game. I’m getting close to finalizing my criteria for the new unit bet size more on that tomorrow. As for today’s games.  The system would suggest only a small 1/2 unit bet on Philadelphia who like it’s visiting counterpart is playing its second game in a row, being home and a slight underdog I can see it as a decent situation to make a small wager on the home team but the Bruins aren’t likely to lose two in a row.

Home Odds Dec Away Odds Dec BMM NN Risk
Pittsburgh -170 0.59 Washington 156 1.56 0.41 1.041 NP
Philadelphia 124 1.24 Boston -134 0.746 -1.37 0.928 0.5
Anahiem -154 0.65 Colorado 142 1.42 -0.47 0.565 NP

Not a very good day yesterday for this new unit system going 1-1 but losing the bigger unit play. I currently only have a handful of the games ran through the systems but will run the rest once I wake up before heading to work and upgrade the spreadsheet. So far two plays 3 on the Bruins who will have a tough home game against the Rangers and a 1 unit play on San Jose who will be visiting the Canucks. I can see both being play’s I’d put Boston more on the .5-1 range with the cost higher. San Jose is on the road I’d expect this line to get even better in favor of San Jose if you would follow this pick I’d wait as the public will most likely pound the favorites pretty hard. I wont be monitoring at the independent monitor until I can actually look at the numbers more to ensure profitable results.

Boston -165 Ny Rangers 152 1.25 2.955 3
New Jersey -107 Philadelphia -101 -0.77 0.041 NP
Anahiem -108 Ottawa 100 0.5 -0.161 NP
Vancouver -133 San Jose 123 1.64 -1.358 1
Detroit -323 Columnbus 291 1.84 0.32 NP
Ny Islanders

 133

Carolina  -144  -0.47

 0.494

NP
Toronto -152 Montreal 140  1.12  0.38 NP
Winnipeg -150 Florida 138  1.17  0.112 NP
Phoneix -164 Tampa Bay 151  2.09  -2.469  2
Nashville -108 Chicago 100  -0.83  -1.411

 1

St. Louis -220 Buffalo 201  1.43  0.01 NP
Minnesota -122 Dallas 113  0.96  3.824  3
Edmonton -102 Calgary -106  0.72  1.582  1
Los Angeles -164 Colorado 151  -0.15  0.104 NP

I’m going to go against a common thought and go against the hot team today I’m going to back Phoenix I’d really like this game if was getting closer to +130 but 119 is just enough for me to take the risk. Also going to take the Avalanche at home as slight favorites. If you check out my monitor I selected the away team on the wrong match up taking Florida but will have it of course adjusted appropriately tomorrow morning.

Plays

Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116

Non Plays

Washington -110 @ Montreal +102
Buffalo +190 @ Chicago -208
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116
Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Montreal 2-2
Chicago 2-2
Florida 2-2
Phoenix 2-2

I had a pretty good weekend both in picks and life watched the Saturday games with my brother then Sunday went and got myself a new desk much better than the old one had. I’m going to work hard to get the next mock draft finished today it might end up being tomorrow though. Got one play for the readers today its Nashville taking on the Islanders. The Predators have been hot as of late winning 7 of their last 10 and New York isn’t that strong of a team only -116 isn’t to bad. A decent value play could be Colorado. I think them and Phoenix are pretty even and the Avalanche could pull off the upset fairly easy but with both systems picking the home team I’m staying off of it.

Plays

Nashville -116 @ Ny Islanders +107

Non Plays
Colorado +123 @ Phoenix -133
Winnipeg +151 @ Ottawa -164
Boston -175 @ Florida +161
Buffalo +197@ Detroit -215
Dallas +174 @ St. Louis -190

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Nashville 3-3
Phoenix 3-2
Ottawa 3-2
Boston 4-3
Buffalo 2-2
St. Louis 2-2

So I won the game yesterday now up to +547 and 15 for 26. Last nights football games were great espiscally the early game. I wanted to get the early game posted and will try and update no games stick out to me but still two without lines so we will see what things are once I wake up. Time to hit the sack and get up for some more sports tomorrow take care readers.

Plays

Non Plays

Pittsburgh -118 @ Tampa Bay +109
Carolina +206 @ Washington -225
Ny Rangers -125 @ Montreal +115
San Jose +117 @ Chicago -127
Los Angeles -123 @ Edmonton +114
Anaheim +197 @ Vancouver -215

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Pittsburgh 2-2
Washington 2-2
Montreal 3-2
San Jose 4-3
Los Angeles 4-2
Vancouver 4-2