Tag Archive: ny islanders


Not going to have any write ups today but here are the predictions for tonight’s games. No plays in the NBA on the 4 game card. The Houston/Phoenix game can move up to -4 or -4.5 I’ll take Houston for a unit its the nearest to a play.

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers  @ Boston -3.5

System: Boston by 20

Golden State  @ Denver -6

System: Denver by 26

Houston @ Phoenix -3

System: Houston by 3

Oklahoma City -6.5  @ Sacramento

System: Sacramento by 11

NHL

Just a 1 unit play on Toronto on the road both the Neural Net and math model suggest Toronto to pull off the upset and frankly I think it’s an overpriced game hopefully will be up for more detailed reports tomorrow. With two games with no lines I will try to tweet out if they are a play when I wake up and update when I see a price.

Dallas -108 @ Columbus +100

System: Dallas

St. Louis @ New Jersey

System: New Jersey

Winnipeg +157 @ Washington -171

System: Washington

Montreal +112 @ Ny Islanders -121

System: New York

Tampa Bay +174 @ Ny Rangers -190

System: New York

Toronto +141 @ Philadelphia -153

System: Toronto

Nashville -123 @ Ottawa +114

System: Ottawa

Los Angeles -118 @ Florida +109

System: Los Angeles

Vancouver -138 @ Minnesota +127

System: Minnesota

Calgary @ Phoenix

System: Calgary

There seriously is just not enough hours in a day anymore… Stinks that getting these out late even though its passed and they lost I thought the Bruins closed at a pretty good value -134 and would have put 2 units on that Philadelphia I probably would have avoided due to price which with hindsight of course it’s even easier to say that. I do like tonight’s play Carolina at home facing Los Angeles. While the Kings have been playing very good as of late so have the Hurricanes. The Kings are coming from St. Louis to Carolina not exactly a real far trip but on back to backs I’ll take Carolina with the other 55% or so of the public. Here’s how all today’s broke down in the math and neural network models.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Philadelphia -148 0.68 0.652 New Jersey 136 1.36 -0.536 1.49 3 2.03
Boston -134 0.75 0.74 Pittsburgh 124 1.24 -0.882 1.55 3 2.24
Montreal -111 0.9 0.277 Washington 103 1.03 -0.176 0.28 NP
Colorado 147 1.47 -0.098 Vancouver -160 0.625 -0.046 -1.66 NP
Carolina -104 0.96 0.702 Los Angeles -104 0.962 -1.339 0.62 3 2.88
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.182 Florida 121 1.21 -0.283 -1.04 NP
Ny Islanders -115 0.87 -0.674 Buffalo 106 1.06 -0.834 -0.05 NP
Ottawa -111 0.9 -0.417 Toronto 103 1.03 -0.083 -1.57 NP
Phoneix 115 1.15 0.322 San Jose -125 0.8 -0.019 -0.28 NP
Dallas -147 1.15 0.362 Minnesota 136 1.36 -0.757 0.18 NP
Edmonton 139 1.39 0.16 Detroit -151 0.662 0.232 -1.24 NP

For the first time I will not adhere to the exact model when I make my predictions on the tracker. Each play will be knocked down only 1 unit plays for the Blues and Calgary. Chicago was on the ice last night losing by 4 goals to Edmonton, despite that game they are still over .500 in their last 10 games and as the BMM shows are graded better for year to date. The Blues are knocked down manly due to price this game is dangerously close to the cut off limit I have set and I’d rather save some if the upset happens than win a little more on a pretty high rated. I’m getting close enough to a decent chunk of games that the new and hopefully last Neural Network will be able to be put out most likely for Monday’s games until then we got these.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Ottawa -153 0.65 -0.074 Ny Islanders 141 1.41 -0.438 -0.2 NP
Florida -150 0.67 0.052 Winnipeg 138 1.38 -1.171 -0.33 NP
St. Louis -148 0.68 0.75 Los Angeles 136 1.38 -0.796 1.17 3 2.03
Calgary 110 1.1 0.785 Chicago -119 0.84 0.08 -0.58 3 3.30
Anahiem -218 0.46 0.529 Columbus 199 1.99 -0.657 0.28 NP

Hope everyone had a great little break from hockey I don’t get into the all star games for any sport as they all just seem like 3 on 3 type with basically no physical contact. I watched about 15 minutes of the pro bowl and was disgusted so didn’t bother watching anymore. Got a couple plays for tonight I’m a little iffy on the Calgary play where Detroit is obviously the better team both on the season and previous ten. Despite being iffy I’m going to stick to what the computer says. I’m looking to make one last change this current system used the math models output for points allowed to help offset for opponents strength and I’m begun using each stat individually will see how it’s looking by end of the week or so to see if it’s something that will an improvement. I’ve also started to lay the ground work on an NBA system I’m trying to get one for the major sports before deciding if want to go to a hosted site or not. But here’s tonight’s spreadsheet.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -190 0.53 2.393 Ottawa 174 1.74 -0.577 2.97 NP
New Jersey 104 1.04 -0.044 Ny Rangers -113 0.885 -0.027 -1.51 NP
Philadelphia -200 0.5 0.441 Winnipeg 183 1.83 -0.913 0.07 NP
Pittsburgh -163 0.61 0.343 Toronto 150 1.5 -0.549 -0.16 NP
Carolina -133 0.75 0.873 Ny Islanders 123 1.23 -0.921 1.14 3 2.26
Montreal -147 0.68 0.397 Buffalo 136 1.36 -1.09 0.27 1 0.68
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.349 Washington 121 1.21 0.368 -1.41 NP
Minnesota 117 1.17 0.373 Nashville -127 0.787 -0.17 0.62 NP
Calgary 134 1.34 0.549 Detroit -145 0.69 0.272 -1.33 2 2.68
Phoneix -131 0.76 0.64 Anaheim 121 1.21 -0.551 0.91 3 2.29
Edmonton 116 1.16 0.244 Colorado -126 0.794 -0.5 -0.18 NP
Vanvouver -135 0.74 1.031 Chicago 125 1.25 -0.425 1.62 3  2.22
San Jose -260 0.38 0.389 Columbus 236 2.36 -1.071 1.19 NP

It’s kind of funny I was all worried about the Phoenix game it was the one which cashed. So after today I’ll have a few days off due to the all star break and I’m not going to release my pick for the Superbowl until Tuesday. But to give readers something to ponder on I’ve been thinking of hosting my own blog basically making it a regular .com site and where this blog has turned more into a handicapping site the futurestarz name isn’t professional sounding or fitting so as readers I’d like some opinions the name I’ve liked for a while is SportingIntellect. Let me know what you think of it or opinions of names that you think might be good. Here is tonight’s game breakdown. No surprise the basic math model favors the Redwings though it is pretty close I’m pretty shocked that the Neural Network favors the Canadian’s. Detroit is the hotter team winning 8 of their last ten while Montreal is 4-4-2. Just about every other stat shows Detroit should win this game. Being favored at a -156 clip though makes this a no play for me.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Montreal 144 1.55 0.083 Detroit -156 0.595 0.054 -1.17 NP

Not going to go as in depth as yesterday on this part but the 2 unit plays for now will one’s that the Neural Network spits out an edge between .475 and .6249. The one unit plays will be from .375 to the .4749. I will attempt to stay out of the way and not mess with plays but as I’ve mentioned before any sort of math system is something that should only be used as a starting point. Today I have a game I’m iffy on so I’m going to not monitor that play. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins tonight’s game I would not bet on it on its current odds from Pinnacle at -125. On my system’s record page I will track this as a play as it fits the criteria so it fits the bill of a “play” I just personally don’t like the odds enough to take that risk if it lowers to my liking I will update it at that time. As you can see the Wash/Bos & Chi/Nas games are without a line I’m expecting at least one of those if not both to have lines which make both no plays.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
New Jersey -173 0.58 -0.214 Buffalo 159 0.578 -0.481 -0.37 NP
NY Islanders -119 0.84 -0.738 Toronto 110 1.1 -0.346 -1.27 NP
NY Rangers -220 0.45 0.243 Winnipeg 201 2.01 -1.32 0.74 NP
Washington 155 1.55 -0.606 Boston -168 0.595 1.489 -1.49 NP
Tampa Bay -170 0.59 -0.243 Columbus 156 1.56 -0.13 -1.05 NP
Florida 106 1.06 -0.09 Philadelphia -115 0.87 0.157 -0.17 NP
St. Louis -120 0.83 -0.071 Pittsburgh 111 1.11 -0.838 0.63 NP
Chicago -151 0.66 0.595 Nashville 139 1.39 -0.603 1.19 NP
Dallas -108 0.93 -0.213 Anahiem 100 1 -0.727 -0.05 NP
Colorado -150 0.67 0.222 Minnesota 138 1.38 -0.337 0.48 NP
Calgary 103 1.03 0.43 San Jose -111 0.901 0.211 -0.6 1 1.03
Phoneix -125 0.8 0.464 Ottawa 115 1.15 0.165 1.26 1 0.8
Vanvouver -290 0.34 0.902 Edmonton 262 2.62 -1.703 2.37 NP

As promised I’d dig into the results of this weekends work. Over the weekend I completely overhauled the Neural Network making it spit out goal differentials opposed to points scored and replacing goals in past 5 for past 10’s win percentage. Using I started looking for a way to start making this multi-unit bet system so I started with standard deviation that was pretty good for starters after removing the -150 or higher favorites (I only have spreads dating back to Dec 9th) of the 172 games I have data from 12/9 till yesterday 13 games fit that criteria going 9-4 I think most can agree that’s pretty good if it would be sustained but that wasn’t good enough for me as I noticed the 9 winning teams had an average predicted win margin about over .3 larger than did those 4 loses (0.975 compared to 0.657) I figured with such a small size of games that fit this range I’d use this as my 3 unit prediction those will be the most rare of the selections so I wanted something that would minimize some losses without completely make it look like I’m just trying to fit numbers to make a record look good so the average of those plays was out of question as those plays averaged out to 0.877 that’d eliminate every loss and leave me with 4 wins. I decided I’d use 0.625 as the current measuring stick that left me with a record of 7-3 and a ROI of 38.4%. More on the different chunks tomorrow. Here’s tonight’s games. Only one play tonight though there is a nice value bet on the table as well I think Columbus could potentially sneak out the win against a Nashville team that Vegas is overrating with a -214 be aware I’m just bringing up the good value that Columbus is receiving.

From now on this NN will be the one I track on the system’s record page and will be in unit form.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Carolina -120 0.83 0.358 Winnipeg 111 1.11  -0.676  0.14 NP
Toronto -135 0.74 0.668 Ny Islanders 125 1.25 -0.731 1.68 3 2.22
Detroit -138 0.72 0.188 St. Louis 127 1.27 -0.735 0.67 NP
Nashville -214 0.47 -0.114 Columbus 196 1.96 -0.253 0.15 NP
Edmonton 155 1.55 -0.001 San Jose -168 0.595 0.188 -0.46 NP
Los Angeles -130 0.77 0.303 Ottawa 120 1.2 0.235 0.8 NP