Tag Archive: NHL Best Bets


Well despite a good start in the NBA the NHL’s neural network has been really struggling. No plays tonight.

Boston -144 @ Buffalo +133

Intro: 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference takes on 2nd to last place team in the same conference as Boston heads to Buffalo. Of course being one of the elite teams in the NHL Boston has a very good record on the road as well as home so heading to Buffalo who isn’t exactly a scaring many visiting teams. Both teams are on one game winning streaks.

Systems: The NN actually picked Buffalo to win this one and the Math model of course picked the Bruins who are statistically dominant.

Prediction: Boston wins.

Edmonton +206 @ Detroit -226

Intro: The second bottom feeder vs top team of the night will see Edmonton who is 5-4-1 in their last 10 travel to Detroit where they are riding a 17 game winning streak.

Systems: Interestingly enough the Neural net actually picked Edmonton to win this game I’ve understood most selections the past 2 days but this is the second head scratcher. The other system picked Detroit by a large margin.

Prediction: Detroit keeps it streak going.

Carolina +134 @ Anaheim -145

Intro: Here we go a match up which sees two struggling teams yippy. I’m so excited. I clearly don’t care for tonight’s card very much but Anaheim has been hot as of late going 7-2-1 but the visiting Hurricane’s are doing pretty well themselves as they are on a two game winning streak.

Systems: Finally a game I can at least wrap my head around the both systems predicts a Hurricane win on the road.

Prediction: I could see Carolina pulling off the upset but I’m staying away from all the games tonight.

Calgary +165 @ San Jose -180

Intro: Here we go a clean sweep of uninteresting games as #3 seed San Jose who lost last time on the ice hosts Calgary who is 5-3-2 in their last 10.

Systems: Both systems point to San Jose holding true to the Vegas odds.

Prediction: San Jose.

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These are going to be pretty quick today and going to have to update some of the games when I wake up as I was having computer problems this morning and have to hit the sack here shortly

Minnesota -120 @ Columbus +111

Intro: Minnesota heads to the last place Columbus Blue Jackets. Neither are on a great roll Minnesota is 4-4-2 and Columbus is 3-6-1. 8 of Columbus’s 14 wins have come at home.

Systems: Both systems point towards the Wild winning.

Prediction: A one unit play on Minnesota.

New York Islanders +159 @ Philadelphia -173

Intro: Philadelphia who is currently 4th in the Eastern conference hosts the Islanders of New York where they will look to revenge their 4-1 loss from Mid January. The Islanders are currently riding the hot hand winners of going 6-2-2.

Systems: Again both systems favor one team and that is Philadelphia.

Prediction: No unit play but I’d predict the Flyers given the hot streak by the Islanders though I think you are getting some decent value by taking them.

New Jersey +147 @ New York Rangers -160

Intro: Both teams are playing very good as of late well the Rangers have been all year as they are currently in first place in the East. New Jersey is riding a 4 game winning streak while the Rangers have a solid 2 game streak of their own. This matchup will be a tie breaker as they have split the series this year but this time the game will be in the Big Apple.

Systems: No surprise both the Neural Network and Math model favor the Rangers who are home and statistically the better team.

Prediction: The odds are out of my range so this wont be a play but look for the Rangers to win ending the Devils run.

Florida +146 @ Washington -158

Intro: Both teams are pretty average as of late and Florida currently sits above Washington in the standings currently sitting in the 3rd spot just behind the Bruins. Washington however has one of the best home ice records in the NHL going 18-7-1.

Systems: I was shocked to see Washington favored by the math model but looking at their statistics I guess I should be more surprised that Florida is the 3rd place team. I did expect the NN to predict the Capitals.

Prediction: I agree with both models but as of late Florida seems to have Washington’s number winners of 2 of the 3 matchups this season both of which were the 2 recent meetings but both of those were in Florida.

Pittsburgh -130 @ Montreal +120

Intro: Pittsburgh is red hot as of late winning 8 of the last 10, and have won all 3 matchups this season. the Canadians have lost all the of those games by a total of 4 goals though so they have to think they can hang with the Penguins.

Systems: Another game where both systems agree with Vegas suggesting the Penguins should be the favorites.

Prediction: A no play little to pricey I do expect Pitt to win but I’d like this to be -125 or better.

Los Angeles +101 @ Tampa Bay -109

Intro: Tampa Bay has allowed the second most goals in the NHL luckily for them they host the Kings and their NHL lowest scoring offense. Tampa would actually have a solid team if they could find a way to win away from home.

Systems: The both systems predict the Kings pull off the upset they come to this outcome because of key edges in face off percentage, 1st period differential, goals against average and Power play ability.

Prediction: While I could see the Los Angeles pulling off the upset my prediction is Tampa is much stronger at home and will win this game. No play on this one though.

St. Louis -117 @ Ottawa +108

Intro: Both teams will be looking to win a game as they both last their last time on the ice. St. Louis however has had a pretty rough time winning away from home going 8-11-3. Ottawa is just 3-6-1 in their last ten games.

Systems: The basic math model predicts the Blues to win thanks to a huge difference in first period differential and goals against average however the neural network gives a large edge to Ottawa this is likely due to some key upsets in the data.

Prediction: I’m actually going to go with the upset pick but the price is not enough even though it has gone up to +115 at Pinnacle.

Vancouver +109 @ Nashville -118

Intro: This is an example where you have to watch lines and look for the right price Vancouver when I typed out the template was at +109 now sits as a favorite of -115. That’s a pretty large line movement. Given that only 2 spots separate these two teams in the Western conference. Both teams are working on a 1 game winning streak but Nashville is on the hotter streak winners of 8 of the last 10.

Systems: The math model and NN again have a disagreement with the math model predicting a large margin in favor of the Canucks the Neural Network gives slightly more than a goal edge to the Predators.

Prediction: If i was making my prediction at the initial line I’d lay two units on Vancouver but with the current line its a no play with the value going towards Nashville who has won 8 of their last 10 home games.

Toronto -101 @ Winnipeg -107

Intro: Winnipeg like most teams have a solid record at home but even have struggled their as of late losers of 3 of their last four home games. The Jets return from a long road trip for one night then head to Washington to start another. Toronto is riding a 3 game winning streak and are 6-3-1 in the last 10 games.

Systems: The math model favors Toronto but this is in large part to a massive first period differential as the Maple Leafs have a +/- of 17 goals in the first period compared to the Jets +1 goal. The NN gives the edge to Winnipeg at first I thought it was because of Toronto being on the ice for the second night in a row but ran removing that part and still favors the Jets.

Prediction: If Toronto wasn’t on the back end of a back to back than I’d consider taking the Maple Leafs considering the line movement money seems to be coming in pretty strongly for Winnipeg.

Phoenix +133 @ Dallas -144

Intro: This game will help separate the 9 and 10 seeds in the West. Both teams have been pretty average in the last ten games.

Systems: Dallas will win says both systems.

Prediction: I’d have to agree and say the Stars should win this one I think the odds are about right so no play.

Chicago -129 @ Colorado +119

Intro: Chicago looks to turn their fortune around when they head to Colorado tonight as they have lost the last 2 games.

Systems: Both say the Blackhawks walk away victorious.

Prediction: Blackhawks for a no play.

Because I’m sure people who randomly come to the blog aren’t sure what the spreadsheet means I’m going to go to have little breakdown on each.

Edmonton +151 @ Toronto -164

Intro: Edmonton comes into Toronto riding a 3 game winning streak. The teams have identical records in the last 10, both 5-4-1. Toronto comes in with the better record currently sitting in the 8th position in the Eastern conference at 27-19-6, while the Oilers are 13th in the West 21-26-5.

Systems: The basic math model shows a slight advantage to Toronto with the main reason being a better first period differential and slight edges in other statistics including Pp Kill, Shooting % and goals per a game where they hold almost .75 goals per game edge over the visiting team. The newest Neural Network is complete and gives the edge to the Oilers. Looking at everything the Network must take the last ten, a slightly better FO%, a better GAA and a stronger Power Play offense by Edmonton and see that of the training teams fit that criteria came out on top more often than not.

Prediction:Edmonton has been very bad on the road only collecting 6 wins so far this season. That is the main reason I’d predict that Toronto wins. At -164 though this is not a play.

Detroit -135 @ Phoenix +125

Intro: Detroit to no surprise will visit the Coyotes with the most points (72) in the NHL. Phoenix has been struggling as of late going 3-4-3 which of course is completely opposite of the visiting Redwings who have been hot all season, road or home it hasn’t much mattered. Detroit has a better record on the road 15-14-1 than Phoenix does at home 11-10-4.

Systems: The Neural Network gives just above a 1/2 point edge to the home team. Detroit is a very slightly favored by the Math Model.

Prediction: Not exactly a bold prediction here but the Redwings are the pick but again a no play unless the price drops to -125 or better over night which I see no reason why it would.

Calgary +115 @ Anaheim -125

Intro: Both teams have been pretty hot as of late 6-2-2 for the home Ducks and 6-3-1 for the visiting Flames. Seven points seperate the two teams with Calgary ahead. Anaheim is a fairly average team at home 13-13-2 and Calgary isn’t very good when traveling 10-14-2.

Systems: Calgary is a heavy favorite by the NN with almost a 5 goal predicted differential. This margin is in large part because of a 8 goal higher first period differential, a better Goals against average, and the slightest edge in Power play %. While the Ducks hold a very slight edge thanks to a better pentalty kill, shooting %, face off % and goals per a game.

Prediction: Given how large of an edge the NN gives Calgary and close the math model is I’m going to make a 1 unit play on Calgary.

The first NBA predictions will be released shortly.

Well that was a sad way to end the month going 1-4 for -6.78 units. But that doesn’t change anything for right now. I did see some of the smarter guys on twitter seemed to not play due to just coming back from the all star break being my first year handicapping hockey I’m not sure if that would have been the smarter or if just happened that bunch of losses together happened either way. On to tonight’s games. No plays today which is probably a good thing lets let things get back to normal. If there is a value bet though I like Washington + the money I could see them pulling off the “upset”.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Toronto 114 1.14 0.052 Pittsburgh -123 0.813 0.049 0.67 NP
Buffalo 126 1.26 -1.037 Ny Rangers -136 0.735 -0.351 -0.81 NP
Florida -145 0.69 0.083 Washington 134 1.34 0.148 -0.18 NP
Los Angeles -220 0.45 0.58 Columbus 201 2.01 -1.441 0.66 NP
Anahiem -158 0.63 -0.151 Dallas 146 1.46 -0.442 0.38 NP

Hope everyone had a great little break from hockey I don’t get into the all star games for any sport as they all just seem like 3 on 3 type with basically no physical contact. I watched about 15 minutes of the pro bowl and was disgusted so didn’t bother watching anymore. Got a couple plays for tonight I’m a little iffy on the Calgary play where Detroit is obviously the better team both on the season and previous ten. Despite being iffy I’m going to stick to what the computer says. I’m looking to make one last change this current system used the math models output for points allowed to help offset for opponents strength and I’m begun using each stat individually will see how it’s looking by end of the week or so to see if it’s something that will an improvement. I’ve also started to lay the ground work on an NBA system I’m trying to get one for the major sports before deciding if want to go to a hosted site or not. But here’s tonight’s spreadsheet.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -190 0.53 2.393 Ottawa 174 1.74 -0.577 2.97 NP
New Jersey 104 1.04 -0.044 Ny Rangers -113 0.885 -0.027 -1.51 NP
Philadelphia -200 0.5 0.441 Winnipeg 183 1.83 -0.913 0.07 NP
Pittsburgh -163 0.61 0.343 Toronto 150 1.5 -0.549 -0.16 NP
Carolina -133 0.75 0.873 Ny Islanders 123 1.23 -0.921 1.14 3 2.26
Montreal -147 0.68 0.397 Buffalo 136 1.36 -1.09 0.27 1 0.68
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.349 Washington 121 1.21 0.368 -1.41 NP
Minnesota 117 1.17 0.373 Nashville -127 0.787 -0.17 0.62 NP
Calgary 134 1.34 0.549 Detroit -145 0.69 0.272 -1.33 2 2.68
Phoneix -131 0.76 0.64 Anaheim 121 1.21 -0.551 0.91 3 2.29
Edmonton 116 1.16 0.244 Colorado -126 0.794 -0.5 -0.18 NP
Vanvouver -135 0.74 1.031 Chicago 125 1.25 -0.425 1.62 3  2.22
San Jose -260 0.38 0.389 Columbus 236 2.36 -1.071 1.19 NP

It’s kind of funny I was all worried about the Phoenix game it was the one which cashed. So after today I’ll have a few days off due to the all star break and I’m not going to release my pick for the Superbowl until Tuesday. But to give readers something to ponder on I’ve been thinking of hosting my own blog basically making it a regular .com site and where this blog has turned more into a handicapping site the futurestarz name isn’t professional sounding or fitting so as readers I’d like some opinions the name I’ve liked for a while is SportingIntellect. Let me know what you think of it or opinions of names that you think might be good. Here is tonight’s game breakdown. No surprise the basic math model favors the Redwings though it is pretty close I’m pretty shocked that the Neural Network favors the Canadian’s. Detroit is the hotter team winning 8 of their last ten while Montreal is 4-4-2. Just about every other stat shows Detroit should win this game. Being favored at a -156 clip though makes this a no play for me.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Montreal 144 1.55 0.083 Detroit -156 0.595 0.054 -1.17 NP

Not going to go as in depth as yesterday on this part but the 2 unit plays for now will one’s that the Neural Network spits out an edge between .475 and .6249. The one unit plays will be from .375 to the .4749. I will attempt to stay out of the way and not mess with plays but as I’ve mentioned before any sort of math system is something that should only be used as a starting point. Today I have a game I’m iffy on so I’m going to not monitor that play. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins tonight’s game I would not bet on it on its current odds from Pinnacle at -125. On my system’s record page I will track this as a play as it fits the criteria so it fits the bill of a “play” I just personally don’t like the odds enough to take that risk if it lowers to my liking I will update it at that time. As you can see the Wash/Bos & Chi/Nas games are without a line I’m expecting at least one of those if not both to have lines which make both no plays.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
New Jersey -173 0.58 -0.214 Buffalo 159 0.578 -0.481 -0.37 NP
NY Islanders -119 0.84 -0.738 Toronto 110 1.1 -0.346 -1.27 NP
NY Rangers -220 0.45 0.243 Winnipeg 201 2.01 -1.32 0.74 NP
Washington 155 1.55 -0.606 Boston -168 0.595 1.489 -1.49 NP
Tampa Bay -170 0.59 -0.243 Columbus 156 1.56 -0.13 -1.05 NP
Florida 106 1.06 -0.09 Philadelphia -115 0.87 0.157 -0.17 NP
St. Louis -120 0.83 -0.071 Pittsburgh 111 1.11 -0.838 0.63 NP
Chicago -151 0.66 0.595 Nashville 139 1.39 -0.603 1.19 NP
Dallas -108 0.93 -0.213 Anahiem 100 1 -0.727 -0.05 NP
Colorado -150 0.67 0.222 Minnesota 138 1.38 -0.337 0.48 NP
Calgary 103 1.03 0.43 San Jose -111 0.901 0.211 -0.6 1 1.03
Phoneix -125 0.8 0.464 Ottawa 115 1.15 0.165 1.26 1 0.8
Vanvouver -290 0.34 0.902 Edmonton 262 2.62 -1.703 2.37 NP

I had to work yesterday so wasn’t able to get the predictions out before the early game. I’m getting close to finalizing my criteria for the new unit bet size more on that tomorrow. As for today’s games.  The system would suggest only a small 1/2 unit bet on Philadelphia who like it’s visiting counterpart is playing its second game in a row, being home and a slight underdog I can see it as a decent situation to make a small wager on the home team but the Bruins aren’t likely to lose two in a row.

Home Odds Dec Away Odds Dec BMM NN Risk
Pittsburgh -170 0.59 Washington 156 1.56 0.41 1.041 NP
Philadelphia 124 1.24 Boston -134 0.746 -1.37 0.928 0.5
Anahiem -154 0.65 Colorado 142 1.42 -0.47 0.565 NP

Not a very good day yesterday for this new unit system going 1-1 but losing the bigger unit play. I currently only have a handful of the games ran through the systems but will run the rest once I wake up before heading to work and upgrade the spreadsheet. So far two plays 3 on the Bruins who will have a tough home game against the Rangers and a 1 unit play on San Jose who will be visiting the Canucks. I can see both being play’s I’d put Boston more on the .5-1 range with the cost higher. San Jose is on the road I’d expect this line to get even better in favor of San Jose if you would follow this pick I’d wait as the public will most likely pound the favorites pretty hard. I wont be monitoring at the independent monitor until I can actually look at the numbers more to ensure profitable results.

Boston -165 Ny Rangers 152 1.25 2.955 3
New Jersey -107 Philadelphia -101 -0.77 0.041 NP
Anahiem -108 Ottawa 100 0.5 -0.161 NP
Vancouver -133 San Jose 123 1.64 -1.358 1
Detroit -323 Columnbus 291 1.84 0.32 NP
Ny Islanders

 133

Carolina  -144  -0.47

 0.494

NP
Toronto -152 Montreal 140  1.12  0.38 NP
Winnipeg -150 Florida 138  1.17  0.112 NP
Phoneix -164 Tampa Bay 151  2.09  -2.469  2
Nashville -108 Chicago 100  -0.83  -1.411

 1

St. Louis -220 Buffalo 201  1.43  0.01 NP
Minnesota -122 Dallas 113  0.96  3.824  3
Edmonton -102 Calgary -106  0.72  1.582  1
Los Angeles -164 Colorado 151  -0.15  0.104 NP

I’m going to go against a common thought and go against the hot team today I’m going to back Phoenix I’d really like this game if was getting closer to +130 but 119 is just enough for me to take the risk. Also going to take the Avalanche at home as slight favorites. If you check out my monitor I selected the away team on the wrong match up taking Florida but will have it of course adjusted appropriately tomorrow morning.

Plays

Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116

Non Plays

Washington -110 @ Montreal +102
Buffalo +190 @ Chicago -208
Florida +107 @ Colorado -116
Phoenix +119 @ Anaheim -129

Neural Network

All scores are rounded

Montreal 2-2
Chicago 2-2
Florida 2-2
Phoenix 2-2