Tag Archive: nba odds

Great start for NBA starting 4 of 5 on plays.

Los Angeles Clippers -5.5 @ Cleveland

Intro: The Clippers head to Cleveland on a roll ATS covering 5 of their last 7 and 6 out of 7 straight up. Cleveland lost last night in Miami now head home for a long home stretch.

System: Cleveland is predicted to cover with the Clippers still winning.

Prediction: The Clippers an edge in most statistical areas on that Cleveland does though is their bench’s scoring ability if Cleveland is able to cover or even win straight up the Cavs bench must come through in a big way as their starters won’t be able to match Los Angeles’s on most nights. At minus 5.5 I’m going to say the Clippers will cover but this is not a play either way.

Miami -3 @ Orlando

Intro: The big 3 head to Orlando to take on Dwight Howard and the Magic. The Heat are winners of their last 3  but have only covered 3 times in the last 10 games.

System: Miami has the value according to the NN as they are predicted to win by about 17. This of course is probably slightly higher but now is the time to lock in Miami as only 3 point favorites before it moves to 3.5-4 or possibly worse.

Prediction: This is going to be a 1 unit play on the Heat.

San Antonio @ Philadelphia -3

Intro: The Spurs trout into Philly riding a very hot streak both ATS and straight up winners of 5 in a row straight up and 6 in a row against the number the Spurs take on a 76ers team who just took down Kobe Bryant’s Lakers in a game I had a play on, on Monday. This should be a great matchup with two teams who statistically match up very well against each other.

System: San Antonio for the cover 76ers for the win with a predicted win margin of only 0.404.

Prediction: I think Philly will end the Spurs hot streak in what should be a close game I’d say they cover the 3 point spread but doubt it will be by much for this reason this is not a play.

New York @ Washington -1

Intro: I’m really confused by this one Washington has the second to worse record in Basketball only behind the Bobcats who can’t win a game. While new York isn’t exactly anything special they are 10-15 and winners of their last two.

System: The edge here goes to New York who is predicted to win by 5.

Prediction: The extra point in value isn’t all that helpful but hey they want to spot me a point I’ll take it for a unit.

Milwaukee -1.5 @ Toronto

Intro: Milwaukee is only 3-10 on the road and losers of their last 3 games yet favored to beat the Raptors by a point and a half. Toronto isn’t very impressive either so I guess it makes sense as the Raptors have lost 2 and a row and 6 of their last 10.

System: Toronto by 3 says the spreadsheet.

Prediction: Toronto but a no play not enough of an edge with the line currently at 1.5.

Indiana @ Atlanta -3.5

Intro: This is the 2nd really good game of the night which unlike the hockey games I actually like tonight’s NBA card these teams match up fairly well against each other and both are currently in second place in their respective divisions. The Hawks have dropped 3 in a row at home and face Indiana before starting a much tougher stretch in which they will see the likes of Miami, the Lakers, Portland and Chicago. The Hawks can’t afford to look past the Pacers who have been very good on the road covering in 4 of their last 5 on the road.

System: And the system says Indiana wins which frankly I see no reason why given that Atlanta holds the edge in almost every statistic the system uses expect pace which isn’t very far apart.

Prediction: I’m going to keep an eye on this one if it can go up a full point to 4.5 I’m going to jump on it for Indiana for a unit getting the number beyond four is to a point I’d see enough value to play on the Pacers.

Detroit @ New Jersey -4

Intro: Here’s a game that I don’t really care for as both teams are in the bottom half but obviously they need to have some of them with having a good size card the Nets have lost 3 in a row while the Pistons might be starting to turn it around and have won 2 in a row.

System: New Jersey by almost 12 full points says the NN.

Prediction: Usually I jump on value like this but given the streaks I’m going to hold off.

Chicago @ New Orleans

Intro: It sounds as if the MVP of the league Derek Rose will play tonight with no line currently available I’m not sure who has the value. However given how bad the Hornets are and good the Bulls are I’m expecting a spread about -11. The Bulls head to New Orleans winners of the last 3 games while the Hornets have dropped each of the last 6.

System: No matter the spread the NN predicts the Bulls to pull off the cover as they are predicted to win by 56 or so by the system.

Prediction: Again no spread my assumption is this wont be a play though.

Minnesota @ Memphis -7.5

Intro: Minnesota will be without Kevin Love as he sits due to his suspension this will be the last game he will miss for Saturday’s incident with Luis Scola. The Timberwolves have dropped 3 of the last 4 against the number while Memphis has lost 2 in a row against the spread which streak is going to end tonight?

System: Memphis is the team the Neural Net says will end its losing ways against the spread as they are predicted to win by 20.

Prediction: I don’t like playing games where I’m laying more than 5 points so this is an obvious no play I even think pretty good value on Minnesota who despite missing Love maybe able to hang in against a suddenly struggling Griz who have lost 7 of their last 9. So I’m going to play the T-Wolves for unit.

Dallas @ Denver

Intro: Speaking of a game where what streak will end both of the teams in this matchup have lost their 3 games.

System: Denver by 2.5 says the system.

Prediction: No line available I’d expect the spread to be somewhere close to the predicted score so likely wont have much value keep an eye on it and jump if you see value though. I’ll tweet out an update if I see some when I wake up you can follow me on twitter the username is futurestarz23.

Houston @ Portland -7.5

Intro: Portland is set to take on Houston who have Identical records as each other and even are the same way strong home teams and weak road teams. What this suggests is that Houston should have no chance in winning this game, but how about against the spread? Houston is 5 of their last 7 ATS on the road but outside of the Spurs twice I can’t say the level of competition was equal to that of Portland. The Trail Blazers have covered 4 of the last 5 at home and the only loss was a game they lost against the Thunder Monday.

System: Houston for the cover Portland for the win. The benches are pretty equal the effective shooting percentage favors the Rockets though not by a large amount and they net ratings are both positive though Portland holds the edge as they have a +6.5 compared to just +2 for Houston.

Prediction: Unless this climbs to +8 I’m going to stay off it just may happened as currently according to the SBR odds tool approximately 56% of people are taking Portland minus the points.


Utah @ Indiana -9

Intro: Indiana has had a nice turn around this season despite making the playoffs last season they did so as the only sub .500 team.

System: The Neural Network gives a 3 point edge to Indiana.

Prediction: After losing by 11 last night I’m going to give another unit to Utah.

Cleveland @ Miami -13.5

Intro: Well these two had the big matchups last year. When James left darted out Cleveland he left them with next to nothing luckily for them they got Kyrie Irving who as a rookie has brought some hope back he currently leads the team in points, assists and field goal percentage. Well Cleveland has some hope for the future they are still a long ways away on the other hand you have Miami who currently has the second best win percentage in the East only bested by Chicago.

System: Miami is given a 23 point edge but given the -13.5 spread this is wont be a play.

Prediction: I expect Miami to win and wouldn’t be shocked if they covered.

Charlotte @ Boston -14

Intro: Boston has really turned it around winning 4 in a row they are now on the right side of .500. Charlotte is in the bottom of the league and has lost 11 games in a row. On the road though they are a little better against the number 5-9.

System: Another huge predictive margin this game huge 66 points.

Prediction: Looks like I’m very far away I hope next week when I rerun the network that this will get solved. Just like the Miami game straight up I expect Boston to win but this one I expect Charlotte to cover.

Sacramento @ Minnesota -6.5

Intro: Minnesota right now in the middle of the pack with a 12-12 record and are winners of their last two games. The host the Kings who are on a 3 game winning streak behind their three talented youngsters DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evens and Jimmer Fredette. While most of the work is on the first two who currently lead the team in almost every statistical category Jimmer gives the Kings an outside presence that cannot be ignored and makes his shots from the FT line at a solid clip 88%.

System: Minnesota with a deeper bench and a more effective shooting percentage and a positive team rating (1.8 opposed to -11) have a large predicted margin.

Prediction: The extra half a point tops my limit for the game. I’d still expect Minnesota to cover but is little more than I want to lay.

Phoenix @ Milwaukee -7.5

Intro: Phoenix takes a two game winning streak to Milwaukee after beating Atlanta by 9 last night the Suns are 7.5 underdogs tonight. They do so being pretty cold ats only covering 3 of their last 9. The Bucks led by their leading scoring point guard Brandon Jennings come into tonight’s action on a two game losing and cover streak.

System: Milwaukee has only a point and a half edge according to the system. Of course this is 6 points of predicted value so check out the prediction to see what I think in terms of plays.

Prediction: I’m going to give this game a two unit play. Phoenix has been playing better as of late has a deeper bench, and though its close a more effective shooting percentage.

Oklahoma City -2 @ Golden State

Intro: The Thunder went into Portland last night and won and are now 10-4 on the road straight up and 8-6 against the spread when they travel away from Oklahoma City. The Warriors are aren’t even .500 at home straight up or against the spread and yet Okc is only laying two points?

System: Interestingly the system grades this out as about right and even a slight edge against the number to Golden State as the Thunder only have a predicted edge of under half a point.

Prediction: I think we see the Thunder win and cover the 2 point spread but this isn’t a play.

The first NBA intellectual predictions I’ve only done a neural net for the NBA as I continue to work on those.

Toronto @ Washington -4

Intro: What a match up this is. Haha okay not really its one of the two matchups in which both teams have less than 10 wins. The Wizards have just 4 wins while the Raptors have double that which isn’t exactly that hard to do. Interestingly 5 of the Raptors 8 wins have come on the road, while of the Washington’s 4 have been at home.

System: The neural network gives Washington a very slight edge of only 0.163 which sounds about right given that they both are bad and Washington is home. What this tells me is if I’m receiving 4 points with barely any edge at all towards Washington I’m getting some decent value.

Prediction: A 2 unit play on Toronto +4. Toronto holds an edge in 3 of the stats that so far have been the most predictive in terms of winning since I’ve started tracking them. Depending on what happens with the moneyline I may try to add a unit play to that as well but for the most part will be sticking with point spreads for NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers -1 @ Orlando

Intro: This is a pretty good matchup and this time I’m not kidding. The Magic are pretty solid at home combining for 8 wins compared to the Clippers who have four wins on the road which actually isn’t that bad considering they have only played 8. Orlando is 5-5 in their last 10 and currently riding a 3 game winning streak. The Clippers have “shocked” the NBA and sit on top of the Pacific West due to playing 3 fewer games than the in state rival Lakers. The Clippers are 7-3 in the last 10.

System: Los Angeles gets the edge by just under 4 points. This is simply because statistically they hold the edge in three stats including pace, effective shooting percentage and have faced a tougher level of competition thus far. The one area which Orlando holds an edge is points from their bench.

Prediction: I agree with the spread but my gut tells me Orlando finds a way to pull it off this isn’t a play so take it for what its worth.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia -4

Intro: Another very good game involving a LA team coming east. This 76ers team I’m more shocked with the turn around than I’m the Clippers given that they are younger almost 2.5 years younger than the Clippers. I don’t want to make it sound like Philly is a bad team they are just well built as their 42 almost 43 points off the bench shows. The Lakers have .500 in their last 10 and only won 3 games on the road. The 76ers have better going 12-3 at home and 7-3 in their last 10.

System: The 76ers are extremely highly favored by the system having the largest predicted margin in tonight’s games at just over 51 points. I don’t expect that big of a difference.

Prediction: The system’s prediction is to high but with some blow outs in the test data it hasn’t had time to offset each week I’ll rerun the net to update it so hopefully will offset these. But this is worth a unit bet.

Phoenix @ Atlanta -7.5

Intro: When I saw this spread I was a little surprised that this was the second highest spread of the night. But then once I took a look at statistics and power rankings around the web and I could understand I.

System: The system gives a pretty large 27 point edge to Atlanta.

Prediction: I think Phoenix covers this game. Atlanta to win by 8 I’m just not sure that I’d predict by that much.

Chicago -9 @ New Jersey

Intro: Chicago the top team in the NBA takes a visits to the Nets who are in the bottom 10 in the league. The Bulls are on a two game winning streak and actually have more wins on the road going 11-5 compared to 9-1 but that is obviously in large part because of the lack of home games. The Nets have a bunch of injuries two key injuries to Lopez and exciting youngster MarShon Brooks. Brook’s injury is more recent but Lopez hasn’t played a game yet this season and that would make a good size difference in this team.

System: How many people are reading this section expecting a model to predict the Nets to cover this? Well if you are than well sorry of course Chicago is favored by about 39, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Bulls won by that much the good news for Chicago backs is they only have to win by 9.

Prediction: This spread is far and everything but a 9 point spread will get a no play every time in my book. I agree Chicago should cover this though.

Utah @ New York -4

Intro: I really don’t understand this spread I guess it’s about what a home team should get when teams are fairly even. Utah has a better record than New York but has really struggled on the road. However New York has only won 3 games in their last 10.

System: The Knicks are a slight favorite but less than the spread.

Prediction: I expect Utah to cover this spread which is what the system suggests. Utah actually has the advantage in most of the statistics I use so I wouldn’t be shocked if they win the game outright. This will be a single unit play.

San Antonio @ Memphis -1.5

Intro: This spread seems perfect to me these teams are fairly even and Memphis is home where they are 7-3. The Spurs are one of the better teams in the league have a 3.5 game lead on the Grizzles. But that is mostly because the Spurs are an amazing 13-1 at home. San Antonio is on a 4 game winning streak while Memphis is on a 2 game losing streak.

System: The system gives a slight edge 3.2 to Memphis this seems about fair given they are home with their stats which match up fairly well with the Spurs but don’t hold an edge in any of them but Pace.

Prediction: Given the streaks I expect the Spurs to win and cover. This is a no play unless the line has some serious movement.

Sacramento @ New Orleans

Intro: Currently no line available in this game but I’d expect -1.5 for New Orleans. New Orleans has lost 5 games in a row, while the Kings have won 2 in a row.

System: New Orleans should win this game according to the system but the edge is very slight inside of 1/2 a point.

Prediction: I like the Kings here New Orleans has been struggling as of late and on the season. The Hornets have an edge in this game of two weak teams so my prediction is mostly based off from the recent struggles and I could see either team winning. Unless a difference from spread to my predicted margin this wont be a play.

Houston @ Denver -7

Intro: Both teams have won 6 games of their last 10. Denver has a better record on the season.

System: The system suggests this game is pretty efficient it has a predicted margin of 6.5.

Prediction: Obviously a no play with the system and Vegas are so close, but I’m going to guess Denver covers they just have a high scoring offense which just their bench scores the 2nd highest in the league with 43.4 points per a game.

Oklahoma City -2 @ Portland

Intro: This in my mind is the best game on the card tonight Oklahoma City has the best record in the West behind Kevin Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook. Portland will look to continue their strong play at home were they are 11-1.

System: This game is very off by the system suggesting almost a 17 point win by the Trail Blazers this game should help offset the numbers some. But to put it into perspective Portland does have a better net rating (ORtg-DRtg), a slightly better pace and a better scoring bench then when you factor in those and being home it’s not shocking that it predicts a win.

Prediction: I think the Thunder cover but this is a no play I expect this might actually move more and finish at about -2.5 to -3. If only moves to -2.5 my opinion does not change enough at -3 I’d play on Portland for a unit.

Hopefully any readers enjoy and we can win some of these games.