Latest Entries »

The first NBA intellectual predictions I’ve only done a neural net for the NBA as I continue to work on those.

Toronto @ Washington -4

Intro: What a match up this is. Haha okay not really its one of the two matchups in which both teams have less than 10 wins. The Wizards have just 4 wins while the Raptors have double that which isn’t exactly that hard to do. Interestingly 5 of the Raptors 8 wins have come on the road, while of the Washington’s 4 have been at home.

System: The neural network gives Washington a very slight edge of only 0.163 which sounds about right given that they both are bad and Washington is home. What this tells me is if I’m receiving 4 points with barely any edge at all towards Washington I’m getting some decent value.

Prediction: A 2 unit play on Toronto +4. Toronto holds an edge in 3 of the stats that so far have been the most predictive in terms of winning since I’ve started tracking them. Depending on what happens with the moneyline I may try to add a unit play to that as well but for the most part will be sticking with point spreads for NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers -1 @ Orlando

Intro: This is a pretty good matchup and this time I’m not kidding. The Magic are pretty solid at home combining for 8 wins compared to the Clippers who have four wins on the road which actually isn’t that bad considering they have only played 8. Orlando is 5-5 in their last 10 and currently riding a 3 game winning streak. The Clippers have “shocked” the NBA and sit on top of the Pacific West due to playing 3 fewer games than the in state rival Lakers. The Clippers are 7-3 in the last 10.

System: Los Angeles gets the edge by just under 4 points. This is simply because statistically they hold the edge in three stats including pace, effective shooting percentage and have faced a tougher level of competition thus far. The one area which Orlando holds an edge is points from their bench.

Prediction: I agree with the spread but my gut tells me Orlando finds a way to pull it off this isn’t a play so take it for what its worth.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia -4

Intro: Another very good game involving a LA team coming east. This 76ers team I’m more shocked with the turn around than I’m the Clippers given that they are younger almost 2.5 years younger than the Clippers. I don’t want to make it sound like Philly is a bad team they are just well built as their 42 almost 43 points off the bench shows. The Lakers have .500 in their last 10 and only won 3 games on the road. The 76ers have better going 12-3 at home and 7-3 in their last 10.

System: The 76ers are extremely highly favored by the system having the largest predicted margin in tonight’s games at just over 51 points. I don’t expect that big of a difference.

Prediction: The system’s prediction is to high but with some blow outs in the test data it hasn’t had time to offset each week I’ll rerun the net to update it so hopefully will offset these. But this is worth a unit bet.

Phoenix @ Atlanta -7.5

Intro: When I saw this spread I was a little surprised that this was the second highest spread of the night. But then once I took a look at statistics and power rankings around the web and I could understand I.

System: The system gives a pretty large 27 point edge to Atlanta.

Prediction: I think Phoenix covers this game. Atlanta to win by 8 I’m just not sure that I’d predict by that much.

Chicago -9 @ New Jersey

Intro: Chicago the top team in the NBA takes a visits to the Nets who are in the bottom 10 in the league. The Bulls are on a two game winning streak and actually have more wins on the road going 11-5 compared to 9-1 but that is obviously in large part because of the lack of home games. The Nets have a bunch of injuries two key injuries to Lopez and exciting youngster MarShon Brooks. Brook’s injury is more recent but Lopez hasn’t played a game yet this season and that would make a good size difference in this team.

System: How many people are reading this section expecting a model to predict the Nets to cover this? Well if you are than well sorry of course Chicago is favored by about 39, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Bulls won by that much the good news for Chicago backs is they only have to win by 9.

Prediction: This spread is far and everything but a 9 point spread will get a no play every time in my book. I agree Chicago should cover this though.

Utah @ New York -4

Intro: I really don’t understand this spread I guess it’s about what a home team should get when teams are fairly even. Utah has a better record than New York but has really struggled on the road. However New York has only won 3 games in their last 10.

System: The Knicks are a slight favorite but less than the spread.

Prediction: I expect Utah to cover this spread which is what the system suggests. Utah actually has the advantage in most of the statistics I use so I wouldn’t be shocked if they win the game outright. This will be a single unit play.

San Antonio @ Memphis -1.5

Intro: This spread seems perfect to me these teams are fairly even and Memphis is home where they are 7-3. The Spurs are one of the better teams in the league have a 3.5 game lead on the Grizzles. But that is mostly because the Spurs are an amazing 13-1 at home. San Antonio is on a 4 game winning streak while Memphis is on a 2 game losing streak.

System: The system gives a slight edge 3.2 to Memphis this seems about fair given they are home with their stats which match up fairly well with the Spurs but don’t hold an edge in any of them but Pace.

Prediction: Given the streaks I expect the Spurs to win and cover. This is a no play unless the line has some serious movement.

Sacramento @ New Orleans

Intro: Currently no line available in this game but I’d expect -1.5 for New Orleans. New Orleans has lost 5 games in a row, while the Kings have won 2 in a row.

System: New Orleans should win this game according to the system but the edge is very slight inside of 1/2 a point.

Prediction: I like the Kings here New Orleans has been struggling as of late and on the season. The Hornets have an edge in this game of two weak teams so my prediction is mostly based off from the recent struggles and I could see either team winning. Unless a difference from spread to my predicted margin this wont be a play.

Houston @ Denver -7

Intro: Both teams have won 6 games of their last 10. Denver has a better record on the season.

System: The system suggests this game is pretty efficient it has a predicted margin of 6.5.

Prediction: Obviously a no play with the system and Vegas are so close, but I’m going to guess Denver covers they just have a high scoring offense which just their bench scores the 2nd highest in the league with 43.4 points per a game.

Oklahoma City -2 @ Portland

Intro: This in my mind is the best game on the card tonight Oklahoma City has the best record in the West behind Kevin Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook. Portland will look to continue their strong play at home were they are 11-1.

System: This game is very off by the system suggesting almost a 17 point win by the Trail Blazers this game should help offset the numbers some. But to put it into perspective Portland does have a better net rating (ORtg-DRtg), a slightly better pace and a better scoring bench then when you factor in those and being home it’s not shocking that it predicts a win.

Prediction: I think the Thunder cover but this is a no play I expect this might actually move more and finish at about -2.5 to -3. If only moves to -2.5 my opinion does not change enough at -3 I’d play on Portland for a unit.

Hopefully any readers enjoy and we can win some of these games.

There seriously is just not enough hours in a day anymore… Stinks that getting these out late even though its passed and they lost I thought the Bruins closed at a pretty good value -134 and would have put 2 units on that Philadelphia I probably would have avoided due to price which with hindsight of course it’s even easier to say that. I do like tonight’s play Carolina at home facing Los Angeles. While the Kings have been playing very good as of late so have the Hurricanes. The Kings are coming from St. Louis to Carolina not exactly a real far trip but on back to backs I’ll take Carolina with the other 55% or so of the public. Here’s how all today’s broke down in the math and neural network models.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Philadelphia -148 0.68 0.652 New Jersey 136 1.36 -0.536 1.49 3 2.03
Boston -134 0.75 0.74 Pittsburgh 124 1.24 -0.882 1.55 3 2.24
Montreal -111 0.9 0.277 Washington 103 1.03 -0.176 0.28 NP
Colorado 147 1.47 -0.098 Vancouver -160 0.625 -0.046 -1.66 NP
Carolina -104 0.96 0.702 Los Angeles -104 0.962 -1.339 0.62 3 2.88
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.182 Florida 121 1.21 -0.283 -1.04 NP
Ny Islanders -115 0.87 -0.674 Buffalo 106 1.06 -0.834 -0.05 NP
Ottawa -111 0.9 -0.417 Toronto 103 1.03 -0.083 -1.57 NP
Phoneix 115 1.15 0.322 San Jose -125 0.8 -0.019 -0.28 NP
Dallas -147 1.15 0.362 Minnesota 136 1.36 -0.757 0.18 NP
Edmonton 139 1.39 0.16 Detroit -151 0.662 0.232 -1.24 NP

For the first time I will not adhere to the exact model when I make my predictions on the tracker. Each play will be knocked down only 1 unit plays for the Blues and Calgary. Chicago was on the ice last night losing by 4 goals to Edmonton, despite that game they are still over .500 in their last 10 games and as the BMM shows are graded better for year to date. The Blues are knocked down manly due to price this game is dangerously close to the cut off limit I have set and I’d rather save some if the upset happens than win a little more on a pretty high rated. I’m getting close enough to a decent chunk of games that the new and hopefully last Neural Network will be able to be put out most likely for Monday’s games until then we got these.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Ottawa -153 0.65 -0.074 Ny Islanders 141 1.41 -0.438 -0.2 NP
Florida -150 0.67 0.052 Winnipeg 138 1.38 -1.171 -0.33 NP
St. Louis -148 0.68 0.75 Los Angeles 136 1.38 -0.796 1.17 3 2.03
Calgary 110 1.1 0.785 Chicago -119 0.84 0.08 -0.58 3 3.30
Anahiem -218 0.46 0.529 Columbus 199 1.99 -0.657 0.28 NP

Just two plays tonight both home teams and low favorites. The Vancouver/Redwings game is scary because obviously Detroit is pretty close to the Cancucks level. I’d say that game should be a lower wager if any, I will monitor it as it stands. I’d give a slight edge to Philadelphia despite Nashville playing very strong right now but the Flyers have been a stronger team over the long haul.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -255 0.39 0.076 Carolina 232 2.32 -0.714 1.73 NP
New Jersey -147 0.68 0.152 Montreal 136 1.36 -0.535 -0.61 NP
Philadelphia -121 0.83 0.452 Nashville 112 1.12 0.05 0.75 1 0.83
Tampa Bay -148 0.68 -0.253 Winnipeg 136 1.36 -0.51 -1.5 NP
Colorado -132 0.76 0.176 Minnesota 122 1.22 -0.91 0.13 NP
Edmonton 147 1.47 0.374 Chicago -160 0.595 0.327 -0.25 NP
Vanvouver -123 0.81 0.909 Detroit 114 1.14 -0.664 0.87 3 2.44
San Jose -190 0.53 0.266 Dallas 174 1.74 -1.229 0.44 NP

Well that was a sad way to end the month going 1-4 for -6.78 units. But that doesn’t change anything for right now. I did see some of the smarter guys on twitter seemed to not play due to just coming back from the all star break being my first year handicapping hockey I’m not sure if that would have been the smarter or if just happened that bunch of losses together happened either way. On to tonight’s games. No plays today which is probably a good thing lets let things get back to normal. If there is a value bet though I like Washington + the money I could see them pulling off the “upset”.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Toronto 114 1.14 0.052 Pittsburgh -123 0.813 0.049 0.67 NP
Buffalo 126 1.26 -1.037 Ny Rangers -136 0.735 -0.351 -0.81 NP
Florida -145 0.69 0.083 Washington 134 1.34 0.148 -0.18 NP
Los Angeles -220 0.45 0.58 Columbus 201 2.01 -1.441 0.66 NP
Anahiem -158 0.63 -0.151 Dallas 146 1.46 -0.442 0.38 NP

Of course only one game to worry about and its the last one for a while. A repeat of Super Bowl 42. This is a very good match up the teams are pretty evenly matched and match up well against each other that should make this game as good as the last time they played. Of the past 3 times the Patriots and Giants faced each other they have only gone over the current total once which was the meeting in 07 in week 17. The other two meetings were 44 points and 31 in the Super Bowl. In the Patriots two games in these playoffs the total has averaged out to be 49, while the Giants games 41.5. Adding those all together I like the under. As far as the point spread goes I’m really on the fence on this one anything over -3 and its the Giants but right on -3 makes this one a coin flip. I’m going to take the Patriots I just think Belichick is very good when comes to facing a team the second time around.

New York Giants Vs New England Patriots -3

Systems: OPS New York 67%

NPS New England 57%

NCS New England 57%

Final Thoughts: New England Under 55

Hope everyone had a great little break from hockey I don’t get into the all star games for any sport as they all just seem like 3 on 3 type with basically no physical contact. I watched about 15 minutes of the pro bowl and was disgusted so didn’t bother watching anymore. Got a couple plays for tonight I’m a little iffy on the Calgary play where Detroit is obviously the better team both on the season and previous ten. Despite being iffy I’m going to stick to what the computer says. I’m looking to make one last change this current system used the math models output for points allowed to help offset for opponents strength and I’m begun using each stat individually will see how it’s looking by end of the week or so to see if it’s something that will an improvement. I’ve also started to lay the ground work on an NBA system I’m trying to get one for the major sports before deciding if want to go to a hosted site or not. But here’s tonight’s spreadsheet.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Boston -190 0.53 2.393 Ottawa 174 1.74 -0.577 2.97 NP
New Jersey 104 1.04 -0.044 Ny Rangers -113 0.885 -0.027 -1.51 NP
Philadelphia -200 0.5 0.441 Winnipeg 183 1.83 -0.913 0.07 NP
Pittsburgh -163 0.61 0.343 Toronto 150 1.5 -0.549 -0.16 NP
Carolina -133 0.75 0.873 Ny Islanders 123 1.23 -0.921 1.14 3 2.26
Montreal -147 0.68 0.397 Buffalo 136 1.36 -1.09 0.27 1 0.68
Tampa Bay -131 0.76 -0.349 Washington 121 1.21 0.368 -1.41 NP
Minnesota 117 1.17 0.373 Nashville -127 0.787 -0.17 0.62 NP
Calgary 134 1.34 0.549 Detroit -145 0.69 0.272 -1.33 2 2.68
Phoneix -131 0.76 0.64 Anaheim 121 1.21 -0.551 0.91 3 2.29
Edmonton 116 1.16 0.244 Colorado -126 0.794 -0.5 -0.18 NP
Vanvouver -135 0.74 1.031 Chicago 125 1.25 -0.425 1.62 3  2.22
San Jose -260 0.38 0.389 Columbus 236 2.36 -1.071 1.19 NP

It’s kind of funny I was all worried about the Phoenix game it was the one which cashed. So after today I’ll have a few days off due to the all star break and I’m not going to release my pick for the Superbowl until Tuesday. But to give readers something to ponder on I’ve been thinking of hosting my own blog basically making it a regular .com site and where this blog has turned more into a handicapping site the futurestarz name isn’t professional sounding or fitting so as readers I’d like some opinions the name I’ve liked for a while is SportingIntellect. Let me know what you think of it or opinions of names that you think might be good. Here is tonight’s game breakdown. No surprise the basic math model favors the Redwings though it is pretty close I’m pretty shocked that the Neural Network favors the Canadian’s. Detroit is the hotter team winning 8 of their last ten while Montreal is 4-4-2. Just about every other stat shows Detroit should win this game. Being favored at a -156 clip though makes this a no play for me.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Montreal 144 1.55 0.083 Detroit -156 0.595 0.054 -1.17 NP

Not going to go as in depth as yesterday on this part but the 2 unit plays for now will one’s that the Neural Network spits out an edge between .475 and .6249. The one unit plays will be from .375 to the .4749. I will attempt to stay out of the way and not mess with plays but as I’ve mentioned before any sort of math system is something that should only be used as a starting point. Today I have a game I’m iffy on so I’m going to not monitor that play. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins tonight’s game I would not bet on it on its current odds from Pinnacle at -125. On my system’s record page I will track this as a play as it fits the criteria so it fits the bill of a “play” I just personally don’t like the odds enough to take that risk if it lowers to my liking I will update it at that time. As you can see the Wash/Bos & Chi/Nas games are without a line I’m expecting at least one of those if not both to have lines which make both no plays.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
New Jersey -173 0.58 -0.214 Buffalo 159 0.578 -0.481 -0.37 NP
NY Islanders -119 0.84 -0.738 Toronto 110 1.1 -0.346 -1.27 NP
NY Rangers -220 0.45 0.243 Winnipeg 201 2.01 -1.32 0.74 NP
Washington 155 1.55 -0.606 Boston -168 0.595 1.489 -1.49 NP
Tampa Bay -170 0.59 -0.243 Columbus 156 1.56 -0.13 -1.05 NP
Florida 106 1.06 -0.09 Philadelphia -115 0.87 0.157 -0.17 NP
St. Louis -120 0.83 -0.071 Pittsburgh 111 1.11 -0.838 0.63 NP
Chicago -151 0.66 0.595 Nashville 139 1.39 -0.603 1.19 NP
Dallas -108 0.93 -0.213 Anahiem 100 1 -0.727 -0.05 NP
Colorado -150 0.67 0.222 Minnesota 138 1.38 -0.337 0.48 NP
Calgary 103 1.03 0.43 San Jose -111 0.901 0.211 -0.6 1 1.03
Phoneix -125 0.8 0.464 Ottawa 115 1.15 0.165 1.26 1 0.8
Vanvouver -290 0.34 0.902 Edmonton 262 2.62 -1.703 2.37 NP

As promised I’d dig into the results of this weekends work. Over the weekend I completely overhauled the Neural Network making it spit out goal differentials opposed to points scored and replacing goals in past 5 for past 10’s win percentage. Using I started looking for a way to start making this multi-unit bet system so I started with standard deviation that was pretty good for starters after removing the -150 or higher favorites (I only have spreads dating back to Dec 9th) of the 172 games I have data from 12/9 till yesterday 13 games fit that criteria going 9-4 I think most can agree that’s pretty good if it would be sustained but that wasn’t good enough for me as I noticed the 9 winning teams had an average predicted win margin about over .3 larger than did those 4 loses (0.975 compared to 0.657) I figured with such a small size of games that fit this range I’d use this as my 3 unit prediction those will be the most rare of the selections so I wanted something that would minimize some losses without completely make it look like I’m just trying to fit numbers to make a record look good so the average of those plays was out of question as those plays averaged out to 0.877 that’d eliminate every loss and leave me with 4 wins. I decided I’d use 0.625 as the current measuring stick that left me with a record of 7-3 and a ROI of 38.4%. More on the different chunks tomorrow. Here’s tonight’s games. Only one play tonight though there is a nice value bet on the table as well I think Columbus could potentially sneak out the win against a Nashville team that Vegas is overrating with a -214 be aware I’m just bringing up the good value that Columbus is receiving.

From now on this NN will be the one I track on the system’s record page and will be in unit form.

Home Odds Dec NN Away Odds Dec NN BMM Risk To Win
Carolina -120 0.83 0.358 Winnipeg 111 1.11  -0.676  0.14 NP
Toronto -135 0.74 0.668 Ny Islanders 125 1.25 -0.731 1.68 3 2.22
Detroit -138 0.72 0.188 St. Louis 127 1.27 -0.735 0.67 NP
Nashville -214 0.47 -0.114 Columbus 196 1.96 -0.253 0.15 NP
Edmonton 155 1.55 -0.001 San Jose -168 0.595 0.188 -0.46 NP
Los Angeles -130 0.77 0.303 Ottawa 120 1.2 0.235 0.8 NP